Weather challenges wheat harvest with uncertainties in the quality of national production

Planting delays and uncertainties regarding crop development are the basis for concerns about the impact of weather conditions on the 2024 wheat harvest. Unseasonal rains in May disrupted the agricultural calendar in regions such as Rio Grande do Sul, resulting in late planting; while frosts and irregular rainfall impacted wheat quality at different stages of development.

This panorama of climate uncertainties and their effects on the harvest in Brazil was one of the main topics addressed in the Webinar “National Wheat Harvest 2024”, held by the Brazilian Wheat Industry Association – Abitrigo, this week.

Southern milling sector fuels uncertainty

"The rains in May pushed our planting to the second half of June, resulting in a slower harvest," explained the Market Operator at Solo Corretora de Cereais, Indio Brasil dos Santos, who spoke about the wheat scenario in Rio Grande do Sul. Despite the adversities, the specialist pointed out that the state has good crop conditions, with 85% of them classified as good or excellent. However, he said that there is a growing concern about excessive rains, especially in the southern region of Rio Grande do Sul, where 2% of the areas already have problems.

Santos also highlighted that producers have faced financial challenges and many will not be able to hold on to their production for long, which could put pressure on the market. “This could lead to a drop in prices, especially if there is a large volume of sales concentrated after the peak harvest, expected for the end of October,” he pointed out.

Just like in Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina also faced challenges related to the climate and wheat quality in previous harvests. Copercampos CEO Rosnei Soder highlighted that despite the reduction in the area planted for the 2024 harvest, crop conditions are promising, although the weather continues to be a constant concern. "The crops are looking very beautiful, but we are concerned about the rains that are coming," said the Copercampos director.

Soder also highlighted an expectation of production higher than last year, projecting a harvest of up to 400 thousand tons, if the weather conditions remain favorable. However, he reinforced that the harvest is still subject to variables such as the volume and duration of rainfall.

The coordinator of the Economic Situation Division of the Department of Rural Economy of Paraná (Deral-PR), Carlos Hugo Godinho, presented a similar scenario in the state, highlighting significant changes in planting practices. He explained that, while the southwest of Paraná received heavy rains in May, the northern half of the state faced a severe water deficit, going between 40 and 45 days without rainfall in June. “This scenario resulted in alarmingly low productivity, with some regions harvesting less than 2 thousand kilos per hectare,” he summarized.

Furthermore, Godinho revealed that the initial production forecast of 3,6 million tons was revised to 2,6 million tons in September, a 32% drop compared to initial expectations. “Even with prices reacting, most producers should have losses or, at most, break even on wheat costs,” he highlighted. The coordinator also expressed future concerns, especially related to the soybean cycle and the incidence of pests in corn, suggesting that some areas could be reverted to wheat planting, depending on weather and economic conditions.

Stability and optimism in the Cerrado

The president of the Wheat Growers Association of the State of Minas Gerais (Atriemg), Eduardo Ellas Abrahim, addressed the critical situation of production in the Cerrado. He highlighted that, with 180 days without rain and high nighttime temperatures, wheat production in Minas Gerais is expected to fall to around 250 thousand tons, a 50% reduction compared to the previous year, which reached 470 thousand tons. “We had crops that did not establish themselves in dryland wheat, including in the South of Minas, which normally has better temperatures, but this year was different,” he stated.

Despite the drop in production, the price of wheat in Minas Gerais remained stable, and some varieties, such as bleached wheat, were sold for up to R$1.600, driven by demand from specific mills. The president of Atriemg expressed optimism regarding the next planting cycle, with producers already seeking information on seed prices for the next harvest.

Abrahim also drew a comparison with Goiás, which is experiencing significant growth in wheat production, surpassing the 300-ton mark for the first time. He highlighted that this expansion is largely due to the increase in irrigated areas, while Minas Gerais still depends predominantly on dryland wheat. “Although the Federal District and Bahia have smaller productions, of 12 and 60 tons, respectively, the quality of the wheat from these regions is remarkable,” he said.

Growth prospects for the São Paulo harvest

The Supply Manager of Anaconda SA, Nelson Montagna, presented a positive outlook for the wheat harvest in São Paulo, with an estimated production of around 360 thousand tons. He highlighted that, to date, 80% to 90% of the harvest has already been completed, which indicates that the harvest is practically complete. “Despite facing climate difficulties at the beginning of the planting season, such as drought between April and May, the weather stabilized, with no frost or excessive rain, resulting in a normal harvest,” he defined.

Montagna noted the state’s production trend over the years, with figures rising from 140 tonnes in 2013 to an estimated 320 tonnes this year, with the potential to reach half a million tonnes in the future. “While the arrival of Russian wheat at our ports presents a challenge, the low quality of the Russian product limits its impact on the market,” he concluded.