Biofuels could reduce emissions in emerging markets by up to 15%, study finds

Blending 25% or more of low-carbon biofuels into conventional liquid fuel blends in selected countries in Africa and Asia could lead to reductions of 10% to 15% in the total carbon footprint of liquid fuels, or 262 Mt (million tonnes) of CO2e per year, according to Task 39, one of the working groups of the IEA Bioenergy, a body subordinate to the International Energy Agency. 

Led by Glaucia Mendes Souza, researcher and full professor at the Department of Biochemistry at the University of São Paulo (USP) and coordinator of the Bioenergy Program (Bioen) at the São Paulo Research Foundation (Fapesp), the study was published in the report “Biofuels in Emerging Markets in Africa and Asia”. The report details the potential for blending biofuels with fossil fuels in current use in seven emerging markets: China, Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, South Africa and Thailand.

The research also adds to a previous study that assessed Argentina, Brazil, Colombia and Guatemala. Together, these 11 countries could contribute almost half of the global emissions reduction target needed in the transport sector to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 (IEA, 2023).

Reduction of greenhouse gases

“The initiative aims to present a cost-effective strategy to reduce GHG emissions from the transport sector in these markets, as it is expected to grow rapidly in the coming years due to the economic development they are currently undergoing,” highlights Glaucia.

The report provides an estimate of GHG emissions from biodiesel and ethanol that could be sold in emerging markets in Africa and Asia. “Reductions of up to 87% have been reported in some cases of blends, when compared to their fossil fuel counterparts,” it says.

For the professor, the study indicates that biofuels are indeed competitive in terms of costs, when compared with the base prices of fossil fuels, with some exceptions. Among them, in the cases of countries where raw materials are very expensive for the production of biofuels or where fossil fuels are highly subsidized.

International trade in biofuels

As an alternative to using local raw materials, the report considers the adoption of international trade in biofuels – a strategy widely adapted for fossil fuels. The results demonstrate the cost-competitiveness of this option. Another aspect addressed is the additional GHG emissions from international freight, which are easily offset by the GHG savings provided by biofuels.

The IEA Bioenergy Task 39 report provides recommendations to policymakers and includes suggestions for developing biofuels policies that seek to reward sustainability criteria and exclude unsustainable practices – all based on certification schemes.

BBEST & IEA Bioenergy 2024

The paper will be officially presented during the BBEST & IEA Bioenergy 2024 conference in São Paulo, between October 22 and 24. The event is jointly organized by the Bioenergy Research Program (Bioen/Fapesp), the International Energy Agency's Bioenergy Technology Collaboration Program (IEA Bioenergy) and the Bioenergy Society (SBE).