Agricultural Market - 23.Sep.2025

Brazilian soybean exports reached a historic high for grain and meal this year. The country shipped 91,3 million tons of grain through the third week of September. This volume exceeds the volume recorded in the same period in 2024. Soybean meal also broke a record, with 18,1 million tons exported. Combined, foreign sales of soybeans, meal, and oil generated US$2,61 billion (R$14 billion) in September.

Despite the strong performance, producers are still holding back a considerable portion of their production. There are 46,5 million tons of the harvest left to sell. Sales of the new crop are at 19,5%, below the average of 27%. Planting is progressing and could reach a record area of ​​approximately 50 million hectares.

In the United States, the soybean harvest reached 9%, within the average for the period. But crop quality has declined. Only 61% of crops are in good or excellent condition. In the previous report, the figure was 63%. The USDA projected 117 million tons, but analysts estimate the volume may be lower.

The dollar weakened after the US interest rate cut. The decline is part of the US strategy to promote exports. In Brazil, the weaker dollar also supports commodity prices.

In Argentina, Javier Milei's government announced a temporary cut in export tariffs until the end of October. The measure eliminates tariffs on soybeans, corn, bran, and oil. The goal is to generate US$7 billion and strengthen public finances. The initiative boosts Argentine sales, but has limited impact on the global market.

Corn situation

Corn exports are also making significant strides. Brazil shipped 4,7 million tons in the first three weeks of September. In 2024, the September total was 6,4 million. Year-to-date, the total was 20,5 million tons. September revenue reached R$5 billion.

In the US, 11% of the corn crop has been harvested. Maturity is a little delayed, but quality remains good: 66% of crops are in excellent or good condition. The harvest is progressing and could yield between 427 and 430 million tons.

In Brazil, the market is still experiencing slow sales. Producers are holding back 60 million tons of summer and second-crop corn. The ethanol sector is beginning to react. Milling is expected to use around 23 million tons in 2025, a new record.

Wheat situation

Wheat harvesting is beginning in Paraná. Quality and productivity are pleasing. Even so, the market is fragile. Imported wheat is putting pressure on prices. Brazil has already imported 4,9 million tons in 2025, a historic record. In Paraná, a ton is worth between R$1.250 and R$1.290. In Rio Grande do Sul, it's around R$1.250. National production could reach 7,5 million tons, even with a 20% drop in planted area.

Rice situation

Rice prices remain low. In Rio Grande do Sul, a bag costs between R$59 and R$65. In Tocantins, the price has already fallen to below R$70. Retailers are selling a 5 kg package for up to R$11,99. Planted area is expected to decline. In Rio Grande do Sul, it is expected to remain below 900 hectares.

Bean situation

Bean prices are beginning to recover. Noble carioca beans are already selling for between R$270 and R$300 per bag. Black beans are selling for up to R$170, with expectations of reaching R$200. Supply will be tight until 2026, which should keep prices high.

Cotton situation

Cotton quality in the US has declined. Only 47% of crops are in good or excellent condition. In Brazil, the harvest is nearing its end. The market is showing a slight recovery, with futures positions in New York attempting to firm up above 70 cents.

Sorghum situation

American sorghum has an estimated harvest of 10,6 million tons. In Brazil, the harvest was a record, with over 6,1 million tons. The next harvest could reach 8 million tons. Sorghum is consolidating itself as a viable option for producers.

By Vlamir Brandalizze - @brandalizzeconsulting