Agricultural Market - 19.Sep.2025

The soybean harvest in the United States reached 10% of the area, above the historical average (8%) but below that recorded in 2024 (11%). Approximately 50% of the crops are already maturing. The USDA estimates a harvest of 117,1 million tons. Initial yields are within expectations, with no major surprises. However, analysts view the figure as possibly optimistic, since in 2024, with better-quality crops, the US harvested 118,8 million tons.

In Brazil, soybean shipments between January and September exceeded 90 million tons. In 2024, during the same period, they reached 87 million tons. The country has already exported more than 3 million tons in September alone, with the potential to repeat the 6,1 million tons shipped in the same month last year. Soybean meal also maintains a strong pace, with over 18 million tons shipped, a historic record. The soybean complex totals over 109 million tons exported, compared to 35 million in 2024.

Brazilian soybean sales in 2025 total 124,7 million tons, or 72,7% of the total harvest of 171,5 million. Although the absolute volume is a record, the percentage traded is below the historical average of 78%. There are still 46,8 million tons available. Only 19,5% of the new crop has been sold so far. The average would be 27%. In better years, this figure exceeded 30%. In Mato Grosso, the pace is even slower. Producers are avoiding sales before the harvest, which could create supply pressure in March and April.

Corn situation

In the United States, the corn harvest has begun and is just over 10% complete. About 50% of the crops are maturing. Quality is considered good or excellent in 67% of areas, higher than the 63% for soybeans.

In Brazil, the second harvest has already reached 112 million tons, with 63 million already sold (56%). The historical average would be 60%. Furthermore, there are still 10 million tons of the first harvest in storage, awaiting better prices. In total, approximately 59 million tons of corn remain available on the market.

Sorghum situation

Sorghum had a record harvest in Brazil, with 6,1 million tons. In the US, the harvest reached 30%, within the historical average. American production is expected to be between 8,5 and 10,5 million tons, a consistent level in recent years. Cultivated areas, located primarily in Kansas and Texas, face high climate risks.

Cotton situation

Cotton in the US accounted for 12% of the area harvested, with Texas leading the way with 25%. The quality of the American crop is not considered good.

In China, production is expected to be better, which has slowed the pace of future purchases. The market remains sluggish, with prices between 65 and 68 cents per pound in New York.

Brazil remains the world leader in exports, with many long-term contracts signed at higher levels than current ones.

Wheat situation

The Brazilian wheat market is facing low demand. Mills are buying only what they need. In Paraná, prices have fallen by R$50 to R$60 per ton. The harvest is progressing, with good quality and productivity, despite a significant drop in planted area. Production could exceed 7 million tons. In Rio Grande do Sul, prices range between R$1.240 and R$1.270 per ton.

In the international market, strong supply from Eastern Europe is putting pressure on prices, driven by fears of currency appreciation with the eventual end of the war in Ukraine.

Rice situation

Rice also remains slow. Producers in Rio Grande do Sul have begun planting, but expected rains are expected to slow down the process. The price of paddy rice ranges from R$55 to R$62. Premium rice reaches R$65. The sector complains about the lack of access to resources from the Harvest Plan. Retailers are selling rice at discounted prices, between R$12 and R$18 per 5-kilogram package. Premium brands reach R$30. Producers, industry, and retailers report tight margins.

Bean situation

Carioca beans are experiencing upward pressure. With the end of the third harvest, prices have risen, reaching R$270 in the São Paulo market. In Goiás and Minas Gerais, the noble variety reaches up to R$260. Conab reduced its harvest estimate to 3,07 million tons. The reduced supply is favoring price reactions. Black beans are also starting to rise. Sales are already exceeding R$250 for the noble variety. Demand remains firm at retail, with promotional prices below R$4 per kilo. Consumption of beans, rice, and eggs is growing among staple foods.

By Vlamir Brandalizze - @brandalizzeconsulting