Agricultural Market - 16.Sep.2025

Representatives from the United States and China continue to meet in Spain. There is still no definition of new agreements. The international market remains attentive to US monetary policy. The expectation of a lower interest rate is strengthening imports and supporting prices in Chicago.

In the US, the soybean harvest is progressing. About 41% of the crops are maturing. Harvesting has reached 5% of the area. The USDA estimates production at 17,1 million tons, down from 18,8 million last year. Quality remains stable: 63% of the crops are good or excellent.

In Brazil, soybeans are setting records. The Secretariat of Foreign Trade (Secex) reports that 2,7 million tons were shipped in the first two weeks of September. Year-to-date shipments total 89,3 million tons. The soybean complex (beans, meal, and oil) has already exported 108,3 million tons in 2025, surpassing the 104,5 million tons exported in 2024.

Despite record highs, soybean sales are slow. The market is showing falling prices. Conab raised its harvest estimate to 171,5 million tons. There is still a large volume to be traded. Port prices range from R$141 to R$143.

Corn situation

The American corn harvest is also progressing. About 85% of the crops are in the grain-filling stage. Harvesting has reached 7%. Estimated production exceeds 427 million tons.

In Brazil, 3 million tons of corn were already shipped in September. The accumulated total for 2025 is 18,8 million tons. Conab raised its estimate for the second harvest to 112 million tons. Sales of the second crop are currently around 62 million tons. There are still approximately 52 million tons left to negotiate.

Cotton situation

In cotton, the US harvested 9% of the area. Quality fell to 52% good or excellent. In Brazil, the harvest is progressing and has practically concluded. The harvest is full, but the market remains complacent. China, the main importer, also has a satisfactory harvest.

Sorghum situation

Brazilian sorghum is gaining prominence. Conab estimates production at 6,1 million tons. The planted area has grown to 1,63 million hectares. Brazil could become the world's second-largest producer. The search for seeds for the new crop has already begun.

Wheat situation

Wheat harvesting is progressing in Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul. Estimated production is 7,5 million tons, down from the previously forecast 7,8 million. The decline is due to a reduction in planted area. The domestic market is facing a downturn, lacking government support. Imported wheat remains competitive, with 4,89 million tons already landed in 2025.

Rice situation

Brazilian rice is also facing difficulties. Conab revised its estimate to nearly 13 million tons. Domestic consumption is 11 million tons. Exports have slowed. The market has returned to trading below R$60,00. Planting has begun in the South and is advancing to the Center-West, but the area is expected to decline.

Bean situation

Noble carioca beans are recovering. Prices have risen to as high as R$260,00 per bag. The market is showing low supply and increasing demand. Black beans are still facing large inventories, but there are already signs of price recovery. Consumption remains strong at retail, with promotions on the shelves. Producers show little interest in planting the first crop.

By Vlamir Brandalizze - @brandalizzeconsulting