Agricultural Market - October 14, 2025

The trade war between the United States and China has once again shaken international agricultural markets. President Donald Trump announced a 100% tariff on Chinese products starting in November. Beijing responded with retaliation. The tension sent prices plummeting in Chicago. Soybeans and oil prices fell, with oil prices falling to $58 a barrel.

Without an approved budget, the US government remains in shutdown. Agencies like the USDA are at a standstill. The supply and demand report has not been released. Recent data on the US harvest came from private sources. Soybean crops are 94% mature and 56% harvested. Corn crops are 92% mature and 42% have already been harvested.

In Brazil, soybean planting has reached 20%. In Mato Grosso, it's 30% complete, but progress depends on rainfall. Regions like Campo Novo and Sapezal are facing delays. The north of the state received more rain, but the west and south still experience irregular rainfall. Weather conditions are expected to improve in the coming days.

Soybean exports continue at a strong pace. In eight business days in October, the country shipped 2,16 million tons, almost half of last month's total. Secex projects up to 6 million tons this month. Year-to-date, the total has reached 96,1 million tons, a new record. The soybean complex shipped 117,1 million tons, including 19,5 million tons of meal and 1,5 million tons of oil.

Exports generated US$1,3 billion in October, totaling R$7,1 billion. Soybeans remain the main product on the Brazilian export agenda. Prices at ports range from R$138 to R$142. 127,5 million tons have already been traded, representing 74,3% of the harvest. The historical average is 80%. Of the new harvest, only 21% has been traded.

Premiums have returned to levels near 200 points. Sellers are asking for more than that. China remains aggressive in its purchases. The market remains above US$10 per bushel, with July/26 positions above US$10,50.

Corn situation

Corn planting has reached 75% completion, with steady rainfall in the South and normalization in the Southeast. Exports also remain strong. In October, they reached 2,6 million tons. Year-to-date, they total 25,9 million tons, close to last year's record of 26 million. October revenue reached US$550 million (R$3 billion).

Corn demand is increasing due to the feed, ethanol, and export sectors. Prices at ports range from R$65 to R$67. The domestic market may react positively.

Sorghum situation

Sorghum is gaining ground. The feed and ethanol sectors are resuming demand in the Southeast, Central-West, North, and Northeast states. The last harvest closed at 6,1 million tons. Producers are already seeking seeds for the February second crop.

Wheat situation

Wheat remains under pressure. The Chicago market fell US$5,40 in July/26. There is oversupply from Eastern Europe, especially Russia, which is bringing forward exports fearing new sanctions. Ukraine is also selling large volumes.

In Brazil, there were no exports in early October. Year-to-date exports total 1,55 million tons, down from 2,48 million last year. Imports have increased, reaching 5,44 million tons in 2025, a record high. Cheap wheat benefits mills.

Rice situation

Rice faces a weak market. Planting in Rio Grande do Sul exceeds 20%. It could reach 30% by the end of the week. Weather conditions have improved. Prices range from R$20,53 to R$55,00 on the Western Border. The industry is avoiding stockpiling. Rice for parboiling is priced at up to R$50,00.

At retail, most brands cost between R$12,00 and R$25,00. High-end brands reach R$31,00. Demand remains normal, even with cheap rice. Producers signal a reduction in planted area. Rio Grande do Sul may reduce its planted area to 920 hectares. In the other states, there is almost no planting.

Bean situation

Beans are also being replenished. Packers are using stock purchased in September and October. Noble carioca beans range in price from R$240 to R$260. In Goiás, prices are listed at R$225. In São Paulo, they reach R$270.

Commercial beans remain priced between R$210 and R$230, with a slight increase. Black beans range from R$140 to R$170. Demand is expected to increase in the coming days with retail replenishment.

By Vlamir Brandalizze - @brandalizzeconsulting