Agricultural Market - 7.Jul.2026

The Chicago soybean market gained support due to the extreme drought in Europe, the resumption of purchases by China, and the progress of the North American crop cycle. US soybeans have entered a period requiring favorable weather conditions. The forecast of temperatures between 36 and 40 degrees Celsius next week has raised concerns about possible flower abortion.

According to USDA data cited in the analysis, 34% of soybean areas in the United States have entered flowering. The previous week, the rate was 19%. At the same time last year, it was 30%. The historical average is 28%. The progress reflects the earlier planting of the crop.

In Illinois, the largest U.S. soybean producer, 33% of the crops have reached flowering. The local average is 29%. In Iowa, the rate reached 37%, compared to an average of 31%. Initial pod formation reached 9% in the United States. This rate surpassed last year's 7% and the 6% average. In Illinois, 8% of the crops entered this phase, compared to an average of 3%. In Iowa, the rate was 3%, compared to an average of 5%.

Crop quality showed a slight decline. The USDA indicated that 64% of the areas were in good or excellent condition. The previous week, the index was at 65%. Last year, it reached 66%. Weather has started to play a more significant role in price formation.

Soybean futures returned to the $12 per bushel range in Chicago. This movement opened a window for new closings, especially in forward contracting operations. In Brazil, the port market improved. The over-the-counter market also registered more favorable levels for producers. Barter transactions gained relevance as a financing alternative.

The marketing of the current soybean crop in Brazil has reached 71%. At the same time last year, it totaled 71,5%. The average is 72%. The delay appears small. Producers still have 52,2 million tons in their hands. Last year, the available volume reached 48,8 million tons.

In the new 2026/27 crop season, sales reached 23%. The increase occurred mainly through barter. Last year, the index totaled 26,5%. The historical average reaches 27,5%. The sale of inputs is still lagging behind. The difficulty in accessing official resources has increased the demand for barter transactions.

Brazilian exports continue to accelerate. In three working days in July, the soybean complex brought in more than US$852 million. Soybean shipments exceeded 1,5 million tons during the period. Year-to-date, soybean shipments reached 71,1 million tons, compared to 68 million tons the previous year. Soybean meal totaled 13,8 million tons, compared to 12,3 million tons. The soybean complex reached 86,2 million tons between January and the beginning of July, compared to 81,1 million tons last year.

Corn situation

In the corn market, Chicago also saw a reaction. July futures gained support above $4,30 per bushel. The July 2027 contracts returned to the $4,80 per bushel range. The market is monitoring the possibility of extreme heat in the United States.

The USDA indicated that 16% of U.S. corn is in the flowering stage. The previous week, the index was at 9%. Last year, it totaled 17%. The historical average is 14%. In Iowa, the largest producer, 8% of the crops have entered flowering, compared to an average of 10%. In Illinois, the index reached 17%, compared to an average of 19%. Ear formation reached 3%, the same level as last year and above the average of 2%.

Corn quality remained stable this week. The USDA reported that 67% of crops were in good or excellent condition. Last year, the index reached 74%. The harvest also has 1,5 million fewer hectares compared to the previous cycle. The analysis points to a possible drop of more than 20 million tons in US production. The situation could be further impacted by losses in the corn harvest in France, a major European producer.

In Brazil, corn shipments totaled 120,3 tons in the first three working days of July. The accumulated total since January reached 8,1 million tons, compared to 6,6 million tons last year. Domestically, the harvest remains delayed due to high grain moisture content. In Mato Grosso, the difficulty in obtaining trucks also limits the transport of crops to warehouses. The pace is among the slowest in the last ten years.

Ports reacted to the rise in Chicago. Indications ranged from 63 to 65 reais per sack for positions starting in August. Even so, there was no rush to sell. Producers are waiting for better prices. Domestic demand remains strong, especially for animal feed and ethanol.

Sorghum situation

In sorghum, Brazil has gained prominence and could reach second place worldwide in the current harvest. The Brazilian harvest is progressing with yields considered good in the analysis. In the United States, the world's leading producer and exporter, planting has reached 97%. The historical average is 96%.

In Kansas, the largest U.S. producer, 94% of the area has been planted, the same percentage as the average. In Texas, the second largest producer, planting reached 100%, compared to an average of 96%. Panicle formation reached 25%, above the average of 22%. However, quality has declined. Crops in good or excellent condition totaled 50%, compared to 52% the previous week and 67% last year. The analysis indicates production of less than 9 million tons in the United States, after 11,1 million tons last year.

Wheat situation

Wheat also received support in Chicago. The market is monitoring production problems in Europe and Russia. Analysis points to lower Russian export potential after a long winter and loss of production potential. July positions maintained support above $6 per bushel. 2027 contracts sought levels close to $6,50 per bushel.

In Brazil, the wheat acreage has decreased. Producers indicate a reduction of between 20% and 35%. The harvest may reach close to 6 million tons, compared to almost 8 million tons in the previous cycle. As a result, the country is expected to import more than 7 million tons in the 2026/2027 season to meet domestic demand.

In the United States, the winter wheat harvest has reached 59%, compared to an average of 51%. The crop matured earlier. Quality is among the worst in 20 years, with 26% in good or excellent condition. Last year, the index reached 48%.

Brazilian wheat imports totaled 92,6 tons in the first three working days of July. Year-to-date imports have reached 3,4 million tons, compared to 3,3 million tons last year. Domestically, business remains slow. Producers report low liquidity. Mills are buying only sporadically. In Rio Grande do Sul, prices are estimated at around 1.320 to 1.330 reais per ton. In Paraná, they range from 1.360 to 1.370 reais per ton.

Rice situation

In the rice sector, industries in Rio Grande do Sul resumed purchases at the beginning of July, after reduced activity in previous weeks. In the Western Border region, the industry sought rice with 60% whole grains or more, with payments around 60 reais per sack. Commercial rice with 58% whole grains had a nominal price close to 59 reais. Parboiled rice was priced between 55 and 56 reais in the region. In other regions, prices were 3 to 6 reais above these levels.

In retail, rice began promotions with five-kilogram packages starting at 12,98 reais. In most states, offers ranged from 13,98 reais to 17,98 reais for commercial rice. Premium products on promotion ranged from 22,98 reais to 25,26 reais. On regular shelves, premium brands ranged from 27 reais to 32 reais per five-kilogram package. In Asia, the market had a calm week, influenced by the appreciation of the dollar against the Thai currency.

Bean situation

In the bean market, the end of the harvest reduced availability in the fields. High-quality carioca beans, grade 9 or higher, maintained low supply and prices above 400 reais per sack. The market should resume purchases to replenish retail stock. Commercial beans grade 8 to 8,5 ranged from 290 reais to 350 reais per sack. Beans grade 7 to 7,5 had indications of 210 reais to 220 reais per sack, with a decrease associated with a greater supply of lower-quality product, affected by frosts and rains.

Black beans traded with stability and a slight upward bias. The end of the harvest opens a period of supply shortage, with a more consistent return only at the end of the year. The weather in Santa Catarina and Paraná will influence plantings at the end of August and September. Indications ranged from 190 reais to 210 reais per sack. The first bean crop may see an increase in planted area, given more favorable prices compared to corn and soybeans.