Agricultural Market - 25.Jul.2025

Soybean prices remain stable in the international market. The US harvest is progressing, with 68% of crops in good or excellent condition. Production is expected to reach 117,5 million tons, slightly below the official estimate. In Chicago, short contracts are holding at US$10 per bushel. Positions for July 2026 are trading between US$10,70 and US$10,80. Uncertainty over Chinese purchases is hindering further progress.

In Brazil, producers are finalizing their input purchases. Sales of the 2025 harvest reached 67,7%, below the average and the previous year's percentage. Even so, sales volume is a record: 115 million tons, with 55 million tons remaining. Exports have already surpassed 74 million tons this year. Soybeans lead the export agenda, with revenues approaching US$5,5 billion in July.

Planted area is expected to exceed 50 million hectares in the new harvest. Soybeans are expected to occupy land previously used for summer corn, rice, beans, and degraded pastures, with a production potential of up to 180 million tons.

Corn situation

Corn is also showing a promising harvest in the US. More than 60% of crops are flowering, with 74% in good condition. Yields could exceed 403 million tons. In Brazil, the second-crop harvest has reached 60%. Sales are at 43%, below the historical average.

Rising soybean prices have reduced pressure on corn prices. The port buys between R$64 and R$68 per bag. In Chicago, September remains at US$4. The global corn deficit is expected to exceed 15 million tons in 2025. 2026 corn already offers premiums of up to 15% in dollar terms.

Corn exports may not reach the 4 million tons expected for July, but they remain strong. There is potential for shipments of up to 40 million tons this season.

Sorghum situation

Sorghum remains a viable alternative in the second harvest. Production could hit a record 6 million tons. China, a traditional US buyer, could make room for the Brazilian product.

Wheat situation

Wheat prices remain stable in Chicago, between $5,50 and $6,00. The Northern Hemisphere harvest is progressing. The quality of American wheat remains low, directly impacting global supply.

In Brazil, imports have grown year-to-date. Planting declined in Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul. The area in Paraná fell by about 30%. Rio Grande do Sul, between 10% and 15%. The domestic market operates between R$1.300 and R$1.480 per ton.

Rice situation

Rice is beginning to recover. Prices have already reached R$70 on the western border of Rio Grande do Sul. Premium rice ranges between R$65 and R$68. Retailers are expected to pass on the price increases. Cheaper packages are likely to disappear. Producers in the Central-West region are holding onto stocks in anticipation of a price appreciation in 2026.

Bean situation

Carioca beans are also reacting. The higher standard is already reaching R$230 in Minas Gerais and R$240 in São Paulo. Stocks in cold storage should only go to market at prices above R$250. Black beans, targeted for export, are still facing a slow market, with prices between R$130 and R$140 in the South.

Demand for rice and beans remains strong at retail. Alternative brands are gaining ground. Packaging is preparing for increased consumption in August. Promotions are expected to disappear, with prices adjusting between R$5 and R$8 per kilo at retail.

By Vlamir Brandalizze - @brandalizzeconsulting