Agricultural Market - August 8, 2025

The American harvest is progressing well, influencing prices on the Chicago Board of Trade. Approximately 90% of soybean crops in the US are flowering, within the historical average. More than 65% of the areas are forming pods, and 69% are of good or excellent quality, a similar figure to last year. Corn also continues to perform well, with 92% of crops flowering and 73% rated as good or excellent.

Chinese demand remains lacking in the American market, but Brazil is making up for it with record exports. In July, the country shipped 12,25 million tons of soybeans, according to Secex, surpassing the same month in 2024. From January to July, the total was 77,2 million tons, 1,8 million more than last year. China accounted for 77% of the total.

The soybean complex—beans, meal, and oil—generated US$6 billion in the period. Meal broke a historic record, with 14,4 million tons exported. Oil totaled 1,2 million tons. In reais, soybeans generated R$33,2 billion through July. At ports, soybeans remain between R$141 and R$147 per bag for positions from October to December, with premiums above 200 points.

Sales of the 2024/25 harvest have reached 70%, below the average of 75%. Around 51 million tons remain in the hands of producers. For the new 2025/26 harvest, 16% has already been sold, compared to an average of 21%.

In corn, Chicago is trying to maintain the $3,80 support for September. In Brazil, 87% of the second crop has been harvested, down from 95% last year. Sales are at 52%, compared to an average of 60%. In July, the country exported 2,43 million tons, also below the 2024 level. Revenue totaled R$2,8 billion for the month.

Wheat is recovering in Chicago, but is under pressure from Russian exports. In the US, 90% of winter wheat has already been harvested. In Brazil, prices remain stable: R$1.300 per ton in Rio Grande do Sul and R$1.450 in Paraná.

Brazilian cotton is progressing well into harvest season. Prices are hovering around R$120 to R$128 per arroba in Mato Grosso. Rice is still being negotiated for export, with prices ranging from R$66 to R$70 per bag in the Uruguaiana region.

Beans are expected to see increased demand in August. The price of noble carioca beans ranges from R$200 to R$230 per bag, while commercial black beans range from R$125 to R$140.

By Vlamir Brandalizze - @brandalizzeconsulting