Agricultural Market - August 4, 2026

More favorable weather in the U.S. Midwest has put downward pressure on soybean prices in Chicago. Rain has affected much of the producing regions. Temperatures have also decreased. Forecasts for the next ten days do not indicate intense heat. This scenario has reduced weather risk and pushed 2026 contracts below $12 per bushel.

US soybeans have reached 88% flowering. The previous week's figure was 80%. At the same time last year, it was 84%. The historical average is also 84%. Pod formation reached 62%, compared to 47% the previous week, 56% last year, and an average of 55%.

Crop conditions remained at 63% between good and excellent. This figure was below the 69% recorded last year. Areas classified as poor or very poor totaled 9%, compared to 7% in the previous cycle. Early planting accelerated plant development and kept the market attentive to August's weather conditions.

In Brazil, soybean crop sales have reached 75,5%. Last year, the rate was 76%. The average is 76,5%. Producers still hold approximately 44,1 million tons unsold, considering a production of 180 million tons. In the same period of the previous year, the available volume reached 41,2 million tons.

Advance sales of the new crop reached 29%. This percentage was below last year's 31,5% and the average of 34%. The volume traded reached approximately 54 million tons.

The drop in Chicago also reduced prices at Brazilian ports. The November contract, which had been trading near 156 reais per sack at its peak in previous weeks, fell to a range between 146 and 147 reais. The exchange rate close to 5,14 reais per dollar limited some of the losses in the domestic market.

Rain also reached areas of Mato Grosso during the dry season. The moisture reduced soil dryness in some regions. Conversely, cotton producers faced difficulties in areas still close to harvest time.

Corn situation

In the US corn crop development, progress was also made. Flowering reached 90%, compared to 78% the previous week, 86% last year, and an average of 87%. Ear formation reached 43%. Grain formation reached 6%.

The quality of U.S. corn has declined. Crops rated as good or excellent fell from 63% to 61%. Last year, the index reached 73%. This deterioration reinforces the possibility of reduced production and lower availability for export in the next season.

In Brazil, the harvest of the second corn crop has reached approximately 67%. The previous year, the figure was 70%. The average is 75%. Mato Grosso has surpassed 95% of its harvested area. The country has harvested approximately 74 million tons. The forecast for the second crop points to a production close to 110 million tons.

Corn trading remains slow. At the ports, indicative prices range from 63 to 65 reais per sack. Some producers are holding onto their grain and waiting for higher prices.

Sorghum situation

North American sorghum experienced a more significant drop in quality. Only 36% of the crops received a good or excellent rating. The previous week, the rate was 41%. Last year, it totaled 66%. Poor or very poor areas reached nearly 30%.

The cereal reached 52% panicle formation. Grain formation reached 28%. The combination of reduced acreage and low quality may limit supply from the United States, the world's leading exporter, and expand opportunities for Brazilian sorghum.

In Brazil, the sorghum harvest has reached almost 70%. The volume harvested from the fields is approaching 6 million tons. This result almost equals the entire production of the previous cycle, estimated at 6,1 million tons. Buyers maintain interest in the product for export.

Wheat situation

Wheat is also finding support in the international market. The departure of Russian ships through the Black Sea has reduced some of the recent pressure. Even so, prices remain above last year's levels. The spot price is around $6,40 per bushel. Longer-term contracts are approaching $7.

Brazil planted approximately 2 million hectares of wheat. Last year, the area reached 2,5 million hectares. The reduction indicates lower production and a greater need for imports.

In the United States, the winter wheat harvest has reached 86%. The spring wheat harvest has begun and reached 5%. Spring crops registered 55% in good or excellent condition. This surpasses last year's 48%, but still indicates a limited harvest.

In the Brazilian market, wheat is trading near 1.330 reais per ton in Rio Grande do Sul and 1.400 reais per ton in Paraná. Purchases by mills remain slow. The sector is awaiting a higher turnover of flour and wheat products after the end of the school holidays.

Rice situation

Rice prices started August higher in Rio Grande do Sul. In the western border region, the product with 58% whole grains reached prices close to 72 reais per sack. Rice with 56% whole grains ranged between 68 and 70 reais. Limited supply and the presence of buyers sustained the price increase.

The markets in Paraguay, Argentina, and Uruguay also registered increases. Asian demand remained strong. Brazilian producers are seeking prices close to 80 reais per sack to cover production costs and increase liquidity before the new planting season.

Bean situation

Carioca beans are experiencing the opposite trend. The premium variety, which traded near 500 reais per sack at its peak, has fallen to a range between 270 and 300 reais. Commercial carioca beans range between 240 and 270 reais.

The increased supply from the third crop put downward pressure on prices. The areas include crops in the harvest, development, and flowering stages. The increase in irrigated planting has broadened the availability of the grain.

Black beans remained relatively stable. Prices range between 190 and 215 reais per sack. Replenishment of stocks during August may support demand. Lower consumer prices may also encourage new purchases by packers in the coming weeks.