Agricultural Market - April 3, 2026

The international market is experiencing a new escalation of geopolitical tension and a direct impact on energy and agricultural inputs. Recent statements by Donald Trump have increased the risk of conflict with Iran. Oil reacted with a sharp rise. The WTI barrel surpasses US$110. Brent reaches US$115. This movement puts pressure on fertilizer costs and increases the risk of global shortages.

The fertilizer sector is facing a critical scenario. Russia and China are signaling restrictions or suspension of exports. Urea has already accumulated a price increase of nearly 70%. Producers need to anticipate purchases to guarantee supply for the next harvest. Product availability emerges as the main risk in the short term.

In the agricultural market, Chicago shows slight support. Soybeans are trading between 1150 and 1190 points. The May contract is trading above 1170. The July contract is exceeding 1180. The market awaits trade agreements between the United States and China. An agreement could unlock volumes close to 20 million tons from the old crop and up to 25 million tons from the new crop.

The weather in the Northern Hemisphere is a concern. Winter continues unabated. Snowstorms are affecting the United States and Eastern Europe. Corn planting is progressing behind schedule. Winter wheat is showing germination failures. The scenario indicates support for agricultural prices in the medium term.

In South America, production is proceeding normally. Paraguay is reaching approximately 10,7 million tons. Argentina projects 48,5 million tons. In Brazil, the soybean harvest has reached 82%. Mato Grosso leads with 99%. Rio Grande do Sul is progressing slowly, with about 25%. National production could reach between 176 and 180 million tons.

Sales in Brazil remain delayed. Only 51% of the harvest has been traded. Producers still hold approximately 87 million tons. The need for cash is expected to put pressure on sales in April.

Corn situation

Corn shows positive fundamentals. Global demand is growing. Brazil is increasing consumption through ethanol and animal feed. Planting in the United States is delayed due to cold weather. The planted area is expected to decrease compared to the previous year. The Brazilian second corn crop is expected to reach approximately 105 million tons, below the previous record.

Sorghum situation

Sorghum is gaining ground. The area under cultivation could reach 2,2 million hectares. Production could reach 7,5 million tons. Demand is growing with the expansion of ethanol and animal feed production.

Wheat situation

Wheat prices remain high. Chicago is trading above US$6 per bushel. In Brazil, prices are rising due to high import costs. The planted area may decrease due to high costs and the negative results of the previous harvest.

Rice situation

Rice prices remain firm even with the harvest underway. In Rio Grande do Sul, 50% of the area has been harvested. Productivity shows good performance. Prices rose in March, reflecting lower supply compared to the previous cycle.

Bean situation

Beans are also experiencing limited supply. The first harvest fell to around 800 tons. The market is maintaining high prices. The second harvest indicates a further decline in production.