The USDA released its monthly supply and demand report this week. For soybeans, the global 2025/26 crop was slightly adjusted upwards, at 422,54 million tons. US production remains at 115,75 million tons, below the previous crop (119,1 million tons). Exports and ending stocks remained stable. China is expected to import 112 million tons, with consumption estimated at 133 million tons.
In Brazil, 82,8% of the harvested crop (171,5 million tons) has already been sold. 29,5 million tons remain in the hands of producers. Sales of the new crop (projected at 175 million tons) total 28%, below the average of 36%. Mato Grosso leads, but with a delay. Brazilian soybean exports in the first week of December totaled 970,9 tons. The accumulated total for the year reached 105,8 million tons, compared to 97,3 million tons the previous year. China remains the main destination, with 85 million tons.
No cornThe USDA maintained its US crop estimate at 425,5 million tons, but increased exports to 81,3 million tons, reducing stocks to 51,5 million tons. Global production (1,283 billion tons) does not cover consumption (1,297 billion tons). In the current South American crop, the global deficit reaches 22 million tons. The sum of the two cycles indicates the use of stocks of 34 million tons. In Brazil, 75% of the second crop has already been sold. Accumulated exports reached 36,6 million tons, exceeding 2024. In the first week of December alone, 1,728 million tons were shipped.
For wheatThe USDA raised its estimate for the global crop from 828 to 837 million tons. Increases came from Argentina, Australia, Canada, the EU, and Russia. Ending stocks rose to 274,8 million tons. In Brazil, the domestic market remains stable. Imports in December totaled 206,7 tons, with a year-to-date total of 6,4 million tons. Prices range between R$ 1.020 and R$ 1.200.
O rice Shipments were strong in the first week: 27 tons in husk and 61 tons processed. The year-to-date total exceeds 1,2 million tons. Domestically, the market is operating between R$ 50 and R$ 55. Planting is practically complete. There is an expectation of a decrease in planted area compared to the previous cycle.
No beanLimited supply is starting to put pressure on prices. Type 9 carioca coffee traded in São Paulo at R$ 240. Commercial coffee ranged between R$ 195 and R$ 215. Black coffee fluctuated between R$ 125 and R$ 135. Exports remain strong. The new harvest will have a smaller area and lower productivity.
By Vlamir Brandalizze - @brandalizzeconsulting
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