Agricultural Market - December 5, 2025

Brazilian soybean exports continue at a rapid pace. In November, the country shipped 4,2 million tons, according to data from the Secretariat of Foreign Trade (Secex). The value of the exports reached US$2,542 billion, equivalent to R$13,6 billion. From January to November, the total exported reached 104,8 million tons, a historical record for the period.

China remains the main destination for Brazilian soybeans. The Asian country has already received about 80% of the production exported by Brazil in 2025. Chinese purchases of American soybeans are disappointing traders in Chicago, who expected larger volumes. So far, the number is far from the projections of 10 to 12 million tons.

Soybean meal also drives exports. The accumulated volume for the year reached 22,7 million tons, compared to 21,8 million in the same period of 2024. The soybean complex has already reached 138 million tons exported in 2025, consolidating itself as the main generator of foreign exchange in Brazilian agribusiness.

In the domestic market, 93% of the soybean crop has already been planted. In 2024, this number was 98% at the same time. The estimate is for a harvest of 141 million tons, with 82,2% of the 2024/25 crop already traded. The historical average would be 86,5%. The new crop, however, is progressing slowly: only 28% has been sold so far, compared to 37% the previous year.

The concentration of the harvest in March could put pressure on prices, even with premiums for March and April rising. Currently, 50 million tons of the new crop have already been traded, compared to 64 million in the same period last year.

Corn situation

In November, Brazil exported 5 million tons of corn, generating US$1,105 billion (R$5,9 billion). The year-to-date total is 34,9 million tons, slightly below the 35,5 million tons projected for 2024. To reach the projected 40 million tons, more than 5 million tons will need to be shipped in December.

In the fields, the first corn crop is suffering losses in Rio Grande do Sul, especially in the Missões region and the north of the state, due to heat and drought. In other regions, such as Paraná, Santa Catarina, and parts of Minas Gerais, the situation is more stable. There are still 35,3 million tons available for sale, including both the second crop and the first crop.

Wheat situation

Wheat exports reached 121 tons in November. Year-to-date exports totaled 1,677 million tons, below the 2,488 million tons of 2024. The harvest is nearing completion, with projections of 7,5 million tons. Mills indicate they will only resume purchases in January. Sales remain slow, with prices between R$ 1.100 and R$ 1.500 per ton.

Rice situation

Rice production is lower this season, with approximately 1,5 million hectares planted. Sales are stalled. Prices in the Rio Grande do Sul market range from R$ 46 to R$ 58 per sack. Only 35% of the state's harvest remains to be sold. The industry is facing difficulties passing on the cost to retailers, who are selling packages below R$ 10 in promotional offers.

Bean situation

Bean harvests in Paraná are still sporadic. The first crop suffered from reduced planted area and weather impact. Supply is limited, with nominal prices between R$ 220 and R$ 250 for carioca beans. Black beans range between R$ 125 and R$ 133. Business is expected to intensify only from January 15th onwards, with the replenishment of retail stocks.

By Vlamir Brandalizze - @brandalizzeconsulting