Agricultural Market - March 31, 2026

The USDA planting intentions report showed a significant adjustment in soybean acreage and cuts in corn, wheat, and other crops in the United States. The market reacted with gains. Soybean expansion fell short of expectations. Corn acreage decreased. This combination indicates lower future supply and price support.

The soybean acreage in the US has reached 34,25 million hectares. This figure surpasses the previous cycle's 32,84 million hectares by 4%. However, it falls short of the Outlook Forum's projection of 34,5 million hectares and is far from the record 35,3 million hectares registered in 2024. The crop opens the season with a potential yield between 118 and 120 million tons. Planting has not yet begun. Winter is still active.

In Brazil, the harvest is progressing. The country has reached 80% of the harvested area. Mato Grosso has reached 99%. Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul have reached 85%. Goiás has 80%. Bahia registers 68%. Rondônia marks 88%. Rio Grande do Sul is still in the initial phase. Other regions vary between 50% and 70%. Production is proceeding normally. Projections indicate a volume between 178 and 180 million tons. The performance in Rio Grande do Sul will determine the final number. Productivity in the state varies between 30 and 45 sacks per hectare.

Soybean sales have reached 50% of the harvest. This figure is below last year's 57% and the historical average of 56%. Producers still hold approximately 89 million tons. Debt maturities in April are putting pressure on sales. The market is expected to see increased supply in the short term.

In Chicago, soybeans are finding support at $11,60 per bushel for the May contract. The July contract is facing resistance near $11,90. Prices are trading in a narrow range, between $11,40 and $11,90. The USDA report prevented more significant declines.

Corn situation

For corn, the USDA indicated 38,54 million hectares. This number represents a decrease of approximately 1,5 million hectares compared to the previous cycle. This reduction implies a potential cut of 15 to 18 million tons in supply. The data reinforces the positive outlook in the global market.

In Brazil, the first crop harvest has reached 70%. Rio Grande do Sul has recorded 75%. Paraná and Santa Catarina together have 70%. Minas Gerais has reached 68%. The second crop occupies a smaller area. Estimates point to 17 million hectares, below the projected 18 million. The delay in planting has reduced the ideal window.

Available stocks total approximately 29,7 million tons, considering the current harvest and remaining stocks. Producers are holding back sales. The animal feed sector indicates high costs for carrying inventory. Even so, the market maintains an upward trend. On the B3 (Brazilian Stock Exchange), contracts are already testing R$ 77 per sack for January, with room for R$ 80. Domestic demand remains strong, especially for animal feed and ethanol. The next second crop (safrinha) could reach between 100 and 105 million tons, below the previous record of 113,3 million tons.

Wheat situation

Wheat is following the positive trend. The USDA projected 17,7 million hectares, down from 18,3 million in the previous cycle. In Chicago, prices exceed US$6,10 per bushel. Long-term contracts are approaching US$6,60. In Brazil, the price fluctuates between R$1.250 and R$1.300 per ton in Paraná. In Rio Grande do Sul, it varies from R$1.130 to R$1.170. Imported wheat exceeds R$1.500 per ton. Producers are still assessing the area for the new crop.

Rice situation

Rice prices are rising in the domestic market. In Rio Grande do Sul, the price per sack increased from R$ 54-55 at the beginning of March to R$ 60-62 at the end of the month. The harvest has reached 48% in the state. Santa Catarina has reached 80%, Tocantins 25%, and Brazil as a whole has reached 50%. Production is around 11 million tons. Retailers are already passing on costs. Packages range from R$ 15 to R$ 30. This movement is putting pressure on inflation. The price adjustment aims to restore profit margins in the sector.

Bean situation

Bean prices remain stable. Type 9 carioca beans range from R$315 to R$350 per sack. Commercial beans fluctuate between R$280 and R$310. The market shows a slight recovery at the beginning of April. Black beans are declining, with prices between R$170 and R$195. Retail restocking may support further price increases in the coming weeks.