The escalation of the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran has driven up oil prices and put pressure on agricultural costs. Brent crude surpassed $83 per barrel in London. The increase impacts fertilizers and fuels. Diesel in Brazil was already operating at a disadvantage compared to the international market. New pressure is falling on Petrobras.
In Chicago, soybeans reacted. The July 2026 contract touched US$11,96 per bushel and flirted with US$12. Short-term indicators are trading above US$11,50. Medium and long-term indicators are above US$11,60 and US$11,70, respectively. Some investors shifted profits from oil to agricultural commodities.
In Brazil, the dollar near R$ 5,30 reduced premiums. Ports indicate R$ 130 on a short-term April basis and R$ 136 to R$ 137 on a full-term July basis. Values exceed the previous week by R$ 1 to R$ 2.
The soybean harvest has reached 50%. Mato Grosso leads with 80%. Paraná has 45%. Mato Grosso do Sul 38%. Goiás 35%. Bahia 30%. There is a slight delay.
Sales of last year's harvest reached 97,9% of the 171,5 million tons harvested. The average is 98%. For the current harvest, 37% has been negotiated. Last year, it was 46%. The average is 44%. Producers are holding back supply and betting on a recovery.
In the corn market, oil is supporting ethanol prices in the United States. Chicago is trying to keep March prices above $4,30 per bushel. July 2026 and 2027 are above $4,50. Long-term contracts are aiming for $4,80 to $4,90, with an eye on $5. Expectations indicate a reduction of 2 million hectares in the US. The market projects a global deficit in 2026/27.
In Brazil, planting of the second corn crop (safrinha) has reached 75%. The average exceeds 80%. Mato Grosso registers 82%, Paraná 70%, Mato Grosso do Sul 65%, and Goiás 65%. Approximately 4,5 million hectares are still awaiting sowing, out of a total projected 18 million hectares. Part of the area is being converted to sorghum.
The harvest of the first corn crop has reached 45%. Mato Grosso do Sul accounts for 63%, Paraná 40%, and Santa Catarina 43%. Of the previous second crop, 89% has been traded, compared to an average of 90%. Available stocks total 26,3 million tons between harvests. B3 indicates March and May above R$ 72,50, and July onwards above R$ 70,50.
Sorghum cultivation is expected to exceed 2 million hectares and reach 7 to 7,5 million tons. China is monitoring purchases in the second half of the year.
In the wheat market, Chicago is trading above $6 per bushel in November. Long-term contracts to 2027 are ranging between $6,20 and $6,30. A harsh winter in the Northern Hemisphere has delayed germination in Eastern Europe. Weakened rubles and hryvnias favor sales at $200 to $210 per ton.
In the domestic market, wheat from Rio Grande do Sul is approaching R$ 1.100 per ton. Paraná is aiming for R$ 1.200. The dollar is supporting prices. Industry is resuming purchases. Producers are assessing input costs, with rising sand prices.
Rice harvesting begins in Rio Grande do Sul. Fronteira Oeste delivers batches with 60 to 62% whole grains. Retailers are selling for R$16 to R$17 per 5 kg package during promotions. Brands are selling between R$18 and R$25. Industries are expecting restocking in March.
Carioca beans (grade 9) reached R$345 to R$360 in February. The market lost momentum in March. Commercial carioca beans ranged from R$300 to R$340. Black beans fluctuated between R$188 and R$205, with occasional deals reaching R$220. Retailers will determine their restocking needs in the coming days.
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