Agricultural Market - Feb. 3, 2026

The international market began the week under strong tension. Geopolitics dragged down oil prices, with a drop of over 5%, and triggered a widespread sell-off in commodities. The movement followed signs of a possible agreement between the United States and Iran, which reduced risk in the Middle East and weakened oil, with direct repercussions in other markets.

Fertilizers followed the opposite path. The global market entered a phase of price increases. Major producing countries indicate that the price bottomed out last year. Natural gas rose in the international market, a factor that puts pressure on urea production. Nitrogen fertilizers advanced at the beginning of the year. Potassium chloride registered price adjustments of 15% to 20% in the global market, with signs of further increases. This scenario favors early purchase decisions and requires attention to the terms of trade.

The potential expansion of corn acreage in the United States, at the expense of soybeans, is likely to increase demand for nitrogen fertilizers. The market is reacting positively toward 2025.

Soybean situation

Soybeans felt the initial impact of the oil price drop, but are trying to recover. The March contract is trading above US$10,60, with resistance at US$10,70. July is trading near US$10,90, targeting US$11. Soybean oil is rising due to a recovery in demand, driven by India, the world's largest importer of vegetable oils, and by the harsh winter in the northern hemisphere, which has increased fat consumption.

Demand for soybean meal remains strong in the global market and in Brazil. Even with a high Brazilian harvest, global production tends to equal or fall short of consumption. There are indications of underestimation of Chinese and Brazilian demand in the USDA figures.

In Brazil, 94,5% of last year's harvest has already been sold, compared to the historical average of 96% for the period. Of the new harvest, just over 33% has been sold, below average. Mato Grosso leads, with 48% negotiated. The harvest is progressing, with 12% of the area harvested in the country. The falling dollar, supported by the 15% annual interest rate, limits prices in reais and favors Chicago. At the ports, spot prices range from R$ 126 to R$ 134. Freight costs are rising and putting pressure on producers.

Corn situation

Corn also suffered from the herd effect of oil prices, but is returning to higher levels in Chicago. March contracts are aiming for US$4,30, while July contracts are targeting US$4,50. Fundamentals remain positive. Global consumption is expected to exceed production. Demand for animal feed is growing due to the harsh winter in producing regions. The Trump administration's stimulus to biofuels is likely to strengthen corn ethanol and soybean oil-based biodiesel.

In Brazil, the summer crop harvest has reached approximately 22%, with a harvested production close to 5,5 million tons. The second crop (safrinha) is planted in 12% of the area. Delays in soybean planting in Goiás reduce the corn planting window and expand the sorghum area. Expectations point to more than 2 million hectares, above the previous harvest. The B3 (Brazilian Stock Exchange) indicates a recovery in prices. Domestic demand remains at a record high and exports continue to be strong.

Wheat situation

Wheat is attempting to hold its ground after initial pressure. March contracts are trading above US$5,30. July contracts are targeting US$5,50. The prolonged winter in the Northern Hemisphere threatens the next harvest, with risks of reduced crop vigor and waterlogging problems after the thaw. Domestically, Brazil continues to export. In the South, prices remain stable, with mills resuming purchase studies after the holiday period.

Rice situation

Rice is showing signs of recovery. On the western border of Rio Grande do Sul, deals are reaching R$ 53. The market shows increases of 1% to 2% in February. In retail, aggressive promotions have decreased. The industry is seeking adjustments to restore margins and sustain the flow of purchases from producers.

Bean situation

Bean prices continue to rise. Premium carioca beans range from R$260 to R$290 per sack. Commercial beans are rising to the R$235 to R$265 range. Black beans are also showing signs of improvement, with deals between R$165 and R$190, and orders above R$200. Short supply and the need for restocking in retail are sustaining this trend. The first harvest was lower than the previous year's volume, further supporting prices.

By Vlamir Brandalizze - @brandalizzeconsulting