Agricultural Market - 2.Jun.2026

The international soybean market begins the week with attention focused on the conflict involving Iran and its effects on global negotiations. In Chicago, soybeans maintain support at $11,50 per bushel. Resistance begins to gain strength near $12 per bushel, mainly in the 2026 and 2027 positions. This behavior sustains future prices close to $12 per bushel, with a slight increase compared to the current market. This movement favors the outlook for the new Brazilian and global harvest.

In the United States, soybean planting has reached 87 percent of the planned area. The previous week's figure was 79 percent. At the same time last year, it was 83 percent. The historical average is 80 percent. This progress indicates a pace above average and above that recorded in the previous cycle.

Illinois, the largest soybean-producing state in the United States, has planted 89 percent of its area. The previous week, the rate was 84 percent. Last year, it also reached 84 percent. The historical average is 85 percent. In Iowa, planting reached 95 percent. The previous week, it was 90 percent. Last year, it reached 95 percent. The historical average is 91 percent.

Soybean germination in the United States has reached 65 percent. The previous week it was at 49 percent. Last year, it reached 61 percent. The historical average is 57 percent. In Illinois, 75 percent of the crops have germinated, compared to an average of 68 percent. In Iowa, the rate reached 74 percent, compared to an average of 67 percent. The numbers show an early harvest, with favorable weather, planting within normal parameters, and above-average germination.

The USDA also released its first survey of soybean crop quality. Areas in excellent condition total 9 percent. Good crops represent 57 percent. Fair areas reach 29 percent. Poor crops total 4 percent. Very poor areas represent 1 percent. Therefore, 66 percent of the crops are in good or excellent condition. Last year, this group totaled 67 percent.

In Brazil, the sale of the harvested soybean crop has surpassed 64,5 percent. Last year, the rate exceeded 67,5 percent. The average is over 68,5 percent. Sales of the new crop advanced to just over 16 percent, but remain below the 22 percent recorded last year and the 25 percent average. The trend indicated in the commentary points to an increase in sales of the new crop during the week.

Fertilizer situation

The fertilizer market has lost ground for price drops in the short term. Resuming tensions in negotiations involving Iran has reduced the chances of price declines. There are indications of a sulfur shortage in China for fertilizer production. This scenario increases pressure on the market, with weaker Chinese exports and greater retention for domestic demand.

Russia is also putting pressure on prices due to the rise in oil prices. The combination of geopolitical tension, lower Chinese supply, and more expensive oil limits the downward momentum in fertilizer prices. This situation weighs on Brazilian producers at a time when the demand for inputs for the new harvest is increasing.

Corn situation

Regarding corn, the USDA reported that 93 percent of the area has been planted in the United States. The historical average is 92 percent. In Iowa, planting reached 97 percent, compared to an average of 96 percent. Germination reached 76 percent in the country. The historical average is 74 percent. The data indicate normal progress for the North American corn crop.

The quality of the corn crops also shows good initial conditions. Excellent crops total 10 percent. Good crops represent 57 percent. Fair crops reach 28 percent. Poor crops total 4 percent. Very poor crops represent 1 percent. Thus, 67 percent of the crops appear to be in good or excellent condition. Last year, the index reached 69 percent.

In Brazil, the corn harvest begins in Mato Grosso. The first areas show good productivity. However, this may not be the rule for the next ones. The crops harvested now were planted in late January and early February. Areas planted between February 10th and February 25th suffered greater climatic impact. In several regions, crops planted in March benefited from late rains.

The Brazilian corn harvest is progressing normally at the start of the season. Business remains slow. Large buyers are prioritizing receiving payments from contracts before resuming purchases. As a result, there is little corn available on the physical market. Buyers are acquiring specific lots, but avoiding forcing prices up.

Sorghum situation

In the US, sorghum planting reached 44 percent. The previous week it was at 36 percent. Last year, it totaled 45 percent. The historical average is also 45 percent. In Kansas, the main producing state, planting reached 26 percent, the same as the historical average. In Texas, it reached 84 percent, compared to an average of 83 percent.

Sorghum producers continue to indicate a reduction in planted area in the United States. This decline could limit the exportable supply from the US. This scenario maintains a potential export window for Brazilian sorghum, as the national harvest is expected to begin in the coming days.