Agricultural Market - 18.Nov.2025

China has resumed buying soybeans from the United States. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) confirmed the sale of 792 tons last week. Further volumes are expected in the coming days.

In Chicago, the market is trying to keep prices above US$11,50 per bushel for contracts starting in January. The July/26 contract surpassed US$11,70. The American harvest has reached 98% of the area, according to the USDA. The crop estimate was reduced to 115,75 million tons. In September, the number was 117,1 million tons. In 2024, production reached 119,1 million tons.

Even with the revision, the market expected a larger cut. Some projections pointed to 112 million hectares. Given this, producers are indicating a possible reduction in planted area in 2026/2027.

In Brazil, soybean prices at ports exceed R$ 145 per sack. National planting is progressing, reaching 70%, compared to 62% the previous week. In 2024, the rate was 80%, and the historical average was 75%. Sales of the current crop have reached 79,3%, with 136 million tons sold. The new crop has 25,4% already sold, compared to 36% in 2024.

The warning focuses on the risk of concentrated sales during the harvest, which puts pressure on prices. Brazilian exports totaled 102,9 million tons through November, compared to 95,6 million in 2024. Of this total, 81 million tons went to China. The soybean complex – grain, meal, and oil – has accumulated 126,1 million tons shipped.

Revenue in the first two weeks of November reached US$1,32 billion, or R$7 billion. The Brazilian 2025/26 harvest could reach between 175 and 180 million tons, with an estimated area between 49 and 50 million hectares.

In Argentina, excessive rainfall has delayed planting. Progress is expected only in December and January.

Corn situation

American corn is already 90% harvested. In Chicago, contracts are holding steady: December at US$4,30 and July/27 near US$5. In Brazil, planting of the first crop has reached 90%, with crops in good condition.

Corn exports reached 32,5 million tons. In November, 2,6 million tons have already been shipped. Revenue reached US$586 million for the month.

Domestic consumption remains weak. Feed industries indicate holidays and equipment maintenance in December. With high interest rates, carrying costs discourage inventory buildup.

The second corn crop (safrinha) has 80 million tons already traded, representing 70,6% of the total. There are still 39,4 million tons available for sale, including both summer and second corn crops.

Wheat situation

Wheat faces the opposite scenario. In Chicago, the December contract is trying to hold at US$5,40. Positions for 2026 are approaching US$5,86. In Brazil, the harvest is over 90%.

In Paraná, 98% of the area has been harvested. In Rio Grande do Sul, the rate exceeds 70%. The national harvest could be a record, but the market remains stagnant.

Mills are focusing on imports. Brazil has already imported 6,1 million tons in 2025. The previous record was 5,9 million.

Rice situation

Rice prices remain at their lowest level of the year. A sack of rice is worth between R$ 53 and R$ 56 in Rio Grande do Sul. Planting has exceeded 80% of the area. The expectation is that the planted area will decrease to less than 900 hectares.

Production continues with good water conditions. In Tocantins, only 10% of the area has been planted. Retail prices range from R$ 9,89 to R$ 26 for a 5 kg package.

Bean situation

Bean cultivation is facing a decline in planted area. The first harvest may not exceed 700 hectares. In 2024, it was 908 hectares.

In Paraná and other states, the cold and rain are hindering development. Production may not reach 800 tons, falling short of the 1,06 million tons of 2024.

Carioca beans are worth between R$185 and R$220. Noble beans reach R$270. Black beans range from R$125 to R$140. The producer invests in mung beans, aimed at export.

By Vlamir Brandalizze - @brandalizzeconsulting