Agricultural Market - January 16, 2026

The international soybean market reacted after the USDA report increased its crop projection without a corresponding adjustment in demand. Prices in Chicago lost momentum at the beginning of the week, sought to stabilize, and then began to show signs of recovery. The March contract is trying to hold at US$10,40 per bushel. The July contract is targeting US$10,70 and maintaining momentum towards US$11.

The main support came from China. The Chinese government confirmed imports of 8,04 million tons in December. The accumulated volume for 2025 exceeded 112 million tons. Brazilian soybeans accounted for almost 90 million tons. Purchases grew 6,5% during the year. The number was above the USDA's projection for the period, estimated at 108 million tons.

Market analysis suggests the USDA is behind schedule in its estimates. The official projection indicates 112 million tons for 2025/26. Analysts see room for higher volumes in 2026. Domestic Chinese demand for protein remains strong. Consumption includes pork, poultry, fish, eggs, and milk. The market is working with imports between 115 and 118 million tons. There is an expectation of volumes close to 120 million tons, given strategic stockpiles.

The USDA report projected a Brazilian harvest of 178 million tons. Field conditions indicate a harvest between 175 and 180 million tons. The estimate remains aligned with the productive potential. The harvest started slowly, at around 1%. The delay is concentrated in February and March. The window for the second corn crop is shrinking.

Domestically, business is progressing. The 2024/25 crop has approximately 90% of its production sold, averaging 91%. The new crop has 32% of its production negotiated, in line with the previous year and below the average of 37%. Producers are facing tight exchange rates. The harvest is expected to put pressure on supply. Premiums remain positive in the short term. The trend indicates a decline when the harvest reaches 40% to 50% and ports accumulate volume. Chicago shows a slight upward bias, but March sees a large supply increase.

Corn situation

Corn prices felt the impact of increased harvests in the United States and China. Stocks grew. Even so, the relationship between production and consumption indicates a deficit. Fundamentals remain positive. Chicago prices retreated and then resumed a gradual upward trend.

In Brazil, the summer harvest totals 113,3 million tons. The market has traded approximately 92 million tons, representing 81,2%. The historical average reaches 82%. Producers still hold 21,3 million tons from the current harvest. About 4 million tons remain from the previous harvest. The total available reaches 25,3 million tons. Harvesting is progressing slowly, between 2% and 3%. The pace should pick up in the coming weeks. Production of the first harvest is projected between 25 and 26 million tons, with crops in good condition and favorable weather.

Rice situation

Rice crops are in good condition in most regions. Harvesting is occurring sporadically on the northern coast of Santa Catarina, with a low percentage of the national volume. Retailers are buying little. Prices for a 5-kilo package range from R$ 9,89 to R$ 27,89. Promotions focus on prices between R$ 12 and R$ 17.

In Paraguay, the harvest has reached approximately 10%. Some crops are performing well, but half of the area is facing significant losses. The harvest is expected to decline. Argentina is starting its harvest with a smaller area and lower potential. Uruguay is repeating the same scenario. The Asian market registered another drop in prices. Despite this, global consumption is expected to exceed production. Stocks are likely to decrease in the new season.

Bean situation

The first bean harvest is underway with limited supply. Producers are holding onto their product, while buyers are seeking volume. The market is reacting positively. Premium carioca beans are priced between R$230 and R$250 per sack. Commercial carioca beans are trading between R$210 and R$230. Black beans are showing a stronger reaction, with prices ranging from R$145 to R$170. In Paraná, deals are exceeding R$150, with asking prices between R$170 and R$180. The planted area has decreased by approximately 50% in the state. Supply remains tight. Demand is expected to strengthen in the coming weeks.

By Vlamir Brandalizze - @brandalizzeconsulting