Agricultural Market - 12.Jun.2026

The U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) supply and demand report showed few adjustments for soybeans, but reinforced signs of firm consumption in corn, wheat, and rice. The week also marked the final stages of U.S. soybean and corn planting. In the Brazilian market, the arrival of the second corn crop and the bean harvest are increasing pressure on domestic prices.

Soybean situation

In the United States, soybean planting has surpassed 95 percent of the planned area. The historical average for this period is 92 percent. Planting is progressing within the ideal window. More than 65 percent of the areas have received a good or excellent rating.

The USDA maintained its global soybean crop estimate at 441,3 million tons. Consumption remained at 440,8 million tons. This figure indicates a balance between production and demand. For Brazil, the agency maintained its projection for the new crop at 186 million tons. The current crop estimate is 180 million tons.

In the United States, soybean production is still estimated at 120,7 million tons. The country harvested 116 million tons in the previous cycle. Argentina is projected to produce 50 million tons in the new crop. Paraguay is projected to produce 11,1 million tons, down from 12,1 million tons in the current crop.

China remains the world's leading importer. The country has an estimated production of 21 million tons and projected imports of 114 million tons. Chinese consumption reaches 135 million tons. The country is expected to consume all the soybeans produced domestically and imported.

In Brazil, China accounts for more than 70 percent of Brazilian soybean exports. Last year, this share reached 80 percent. Even with a slower pace of Chinese exports, Brazil maintains record levels in soybean and soybean meal exports. Soybean shipments exceeded 60 million tons year-to-date. Soybean meal exports reached approximately 12 million tons.

In Chicago, soybeans are attempting to hold support at $11,10 per bushel. Spot contract support is at $11 per bushel. The market maintains a slight downward bias. The good condition of the North American crop and the lack of significant purchases from China in the United States are weighing on prices. Futures contracts remain between $11 and $11,50 per bushel.

In Brazil, prices at ports range from 133 to 142 reais per sack between July and October. The drop in Chicago was partially offset by premiums. This kept the values ​​in reais stable. Sales of the current crop have reached approximately 66 percent. During the same period last year, it was at 69 percent. The historical average is 70 percent.

Advance sales of the new soybean crop have reached 19 percent. Last year, they reached 24 percent. The historical average is 26 percent. Purchases of seeds and fertilizers remain delayed. The delay in soybean seed sales is among the largest ever recorded for this period.

The soybean acreage may increase next season. It could expand into areas previously used for summer corn and rice, as well as degraded pastures and areas where sugarcane is being renewed.

Corn situation

For corn, the USDA raised its projection for the global crop to 1,3 billion tons. The previous estimate was 1,2954 billion tons. The positive adjustment reached 4,6 million tons. However, global consumption was projected at 1,3225 billion tons. Demand exceeds production by 22,5 million tons.

Global corn consumption is expected to reach a historic record. The ethanol sector accounts for part of the growth. In the United States, production is estimated at 406 million tons, compared to 432 million tons in the previous cycle. Brazil is projected at 139 million tons. Argentina is projected at 55 million tons, compared to 61 million tons in the current harvest.

China is expected to produce 307 million tons of corn and import 6 million tons. Chinese consumption reaches 325 million tons. The difference indicates a reduction in stocks. Mexico remains the world's largest importer in the report, with 27,7 million tons. Mexican consumption reaches 53,4 million tons.

In Brazil, the corn harvest is progressing in Mato Grosso. The state has harvested about 10 percent of the area. Harvesting is also underway in areas of Goiás, Minas Gerais, Mato Grosso do Sul, and isolated points in Paraná. In Paraná, rains have limited the pace. The harvest is expected to gain momentum at the end of June and in July.

Corn prices at ports range from 64 to 67 reais per sack between July and September. The domestic market may face further downward pressure in the coming weeks. The increased supply from the second crop should raise producers' need to sell. However, domestic demand for animal feed and ethanol remains at record levels.

Wheat situation

For wheat, the USDA raised its global production estimate to 820,1 million tons. The previous estimate was 819,1 million tons. Global consumption increased from 823,2 million to 824,6 million tons. Production is below the projected consumption.

The winter wheat harvest in the United States has surpassed 15 percent. Last year, the rate was below 10 percent at the same time. Only 25 percent of the American winter wheat crops received a good or excellent rating. The source also cites vigor problems in Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe.

In Brazil, wheat from Rio Grande do Sul ranges from 1.320 to 1.330 reais per ton. In Paraná, prices are between 1.360 and 1.380 reais per ton. At the farm gate, the price per sack varies from 69 to 70 reais in Paraná and from 68 to 69 reais in Rio Grande do Sul. Planting is progressing in both states. The new Brazilian harvest is expected to have a smaller planted area, according to the source.

Rice situation

For rice, the USDA projects global production of 532,3 million tons of milled rice. The previous harvest totaled 544,7 million tons. The decrease amounts to approximately 12,5 million tons. Consumption was estimated at 541,2 million tons. Demand exceeds production by about 9 million tons.

India remains the world's largest exporter, with a projected 25 million tons. However, the country is showing signs of controlling exports to avoid domestic shortages and inflationary pressure.

In Brazil, auctions for the Producer Equalization Premium have provided liquidity to the rice market. Part of the contracts are expected to be exported. In retail, five-kilogram packages priced between 10 and 11 reais have lost ground. Promotions for commercial brands are appearing between 13,89 and 14,89 reais. Well-known brands are priced between 16 and 17 reais. Premium brands are appearing between 23,90 reais on promotion and 28 to 30 reais on regular shelves.

In the western border region of Rio Grande do Sul, the price of commercial rice for producers was 55 reais per sack. Parboiled rice was 51 reais per sack. Producers in Rio Grande do Sul, Paraguay, Argentina, and Uruguay indicate a reduction in planted area. The new Mercosur harvest may fall below 13 million tons.

Bean situation

In the bean market, the arrival of the harvest is putting pressure on prices. In Paraná, rain is hindering the harvest. The premium carioca bean, type nine and above, reached 500 reais per sack and has since fallen to prices between 370 and 410 reais per sack. The commercial carioca bean dropped from levels above 450 reais to between 320 and 380 reais per sack.

Black beans also saw a price decrease. The product, previously trading near 300 reais per sack, is now priced between 180 and 220 reais per sack. The downward pressure may continue with the harvest. After mid-July, supply is expected to decrease, and the market should experience a supply shortage in August, September, and October.