Agricultural Market - March 10, 2026

The fall in oil prices following signs of a cooling of the war did not alleviate the Brazilian fuel market. Diesel remains scarce in several producing regions. The price per liter rose from below R$ 6 to over R$ 8. Freight costs increased. Logistical costs squeezed margins and began to affect harvesting, transportation, and price formation in the field.

In the soybean market, Chicago returned to focusing on fundamentals. The contract is attempting to hold at $12 per bushel in the nearest positions. Support comes from demand for animal feed in the Northern Hemisphere and the rise in vegetable oil prices, directly impacting soybean oil. In Brazil, the sector is pressuring the government for progress in the biodiesel blend. The transition from B15 to B17 would add 1,2 billion liters of biodiesel per year and reduce the need for diesel imports by the same amount.

Soybean harvest reaches 55%. Mato Grosso leads with 90%. Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul are at 55%. Goiás has 50%. Bahia, 38%. Rondônia, 60%. The commercialization of the old crop reached 98,5% of the harvested volume. The new crop advanced to 39%, still below 48% last year and the average of 47%, although the last week has already shown a pace closer to normal for the peak of the harvest.

In exports, soybeans opened March with 3,308 million tons shipped in the first week. If the pace is maintained, the month could reach 16 million tons. From January until now, soybean grain has accumulated a historical record close to 12,3 million tons. The soybean complex has accumulated 16,3 million tons, above 14,8 million in the same period last year.

Corn situation

In the corn market, the international market lost some momentum after geopolitical adjustments, but long-term fundamentals remain positive. In Brazil, the market remains bullish. The first crop harvest has reached 55%, compared to an average of 60%. The planting of the second crop has reached 90%, below the average of 95%, with delays in key states and the planting window already compromised. This situation could delay the arrival of supply and lead to competition among buyers. Sorghum cultivation has gained momentum and could exceed 2 million hectares, up from 1,6 million in the last harvest.

Wheat situation

In the wheat market, the conflict has driven up international prices. The market is trading above last year's levels. Support comes from doubts about the Northern Hemisphere harvest after a harsh winter. In Brazil, the cereal is following this trend. Wheat from Rio Grande do Sul is around R$ 1.100 per ton. Wheat from Paraná is trading near R$ 1.200. The rise in urea prices, already in the US$ 600 per ton range, reinforces producers' caution regarding planting.

Rice situation

In the rice sector, the harvest in Rio Grande do Sul is progressing at a faster pace, still close to 10% complete, with good productivity and grains exceeding 60% whole grains in the new product. However, the market is facing logistical pressures and difficulties in replenishing diesel supplies. Exports are providing support. Accumulated shipments of paddy rice have already surpassed half a million tons this year.

Bean situation

In the bean market, prices are expected to be replenished by retailers in March. Premium carioca beans are trading between R$ 335 and R$ 355. Commercial beans range from R$ 300 to R$ 330. Black beans are priced between R$ 180 and R$ 200, depending on the region and quality. Market perception indicates restricted supply and firm prices throughout the year, given a smaller first harvest and uncertainties about the development of the second harvest.