Agribusiness has the worst month of June since 2019

In June 2025, agroindustrial production volume contracted 5,3% compared to the same month in 2024, the worst result for June since 2019, when it had contracted 5,6%. This is revealed by the FGVAgro agroindustrial production volume survey. This contraction was driven by both the Food and Beverage Products segment (which fell 3,5%) and Non-Food Products (-7,5%).

The study shows that the loss of dynamism in the agribusiness sector over the first six months of 2025 was not a linear process, but rather a reversal in performance. In the first quarter, the sector's cumulative growth was 2,1%; in the second quarter, the agribusiness sector experienced a decline of -3,1%. Thus, over the first six months of the year, the sector recorded a contraction of 0,7%.

According to FGVAgro's analysis, it's important to emphasize that, behind this performance, it's clear that it wasn't the tariff hike announced by Trump in early July that pushed the agribusiness sector into negative territory, as this factor wasn't factored in until June. Furthermore, it wasn't avian flu that generated these results, as animal food production (notably meat) increased in both May and June 2025.

This loss of dynamism appears to be associated with the slowdown in the Brazilian economy, mainly due to a more restrictive monetary policy (high interest rates and greater credit restrictions).

For the second half of 2025, the agribusiness sector is expected to face some additional obstacles. In addition to already operating at a contractionary pace in July, it will also have to deal with the adverse consequences of the tariff hike, which only came into effect at the beginning of August.