After frost, Geosys warns of low soil moisture in wheat and sugarcane areas

After the sharp drop in temperature and frosts in the states of Rio Grande do Sul, Paraná and part of São Paulo, in the last days of July, the drought is expected to affect several wheat and sugar cane regions in the three states more intensely. In remote sensing carried out by Geosys Brasil, it is not yet possible to measure the impact of irregular weather on the vigor index (NDVI) in these crops. “We will wait a few more days to identify how much the drought will affect the productive potential of the plants”, says Felippe Reis, crop analyst at Geosys.

According to the European forecast model (ECMWF), temperatures in August will still be below average for the next ten days, but the intensity of the cold is expected to lose strength. The American forecast model (GFS) highlights that temperatures will be above average across almost the entire country. However, both models point to a lack of rain in much of the country.

Rio Grande do Sul

For the next few days of August, both the European and American models point to temperatures higher than those recorded at the end of July. Therefore, the risk of new frosts will be lower in the short term, but there is still a chance of occurrence in some regions, mainly in the northeast of the state. Low soil moisture is another factor that has caused concern and the drought is expected to continue, which should keep soil moisture at a low level in wheat regions.

Paraná

After the three cold waves that hit the state in the last five weeks, the NDVI showed poor dynamics, highlighting the impact of frost on corn, wheat and even sugar cane crops. For the short term, the forecast is that the cold will lose intensity and temperatures will remain close to average, favoring crops. But the volume of rain is expected to remain low, which should keep soil moisture at the lowest level compared to recent years.

São Paulo

In the southeast of the state, mainly in the Itapetininga region, a wheat-growing region, the NDVI shows a more pronounced drop compared to previous years, which highlights the impacts of the frosts of recent weeks. For the short term, temperatures are gradually increasing, which reduces the risk of new frosts. However, soil moisture must remain low, which may limit the productive potential of this crop.

In the Ribeirão Preto region, an area with sugarcane production, below-average precipitation in recent months has kept soil humidity low, which has limited production potential. Furthermore, the NDVI showed a more pronounced drop in recent weeks, in line with the three cold waves recorded in the period. The average minimum temperature in the region was below 5°C on three occasions (end of June, middle and end of July). It is worth mentioning that, in some regions (such as Barretos, for example) there were negative temperatures. There is still a need to wait a few more days until the impacts of frost are accounted for.