Adverse weather impacts sugarcane crops and production reaches 585,2 million tons in the 2021/22 harvest

Sugarcane production in the 2021/22 harvest records a total of 585,2 million tons. The volume represents a drop of 10,6% in relation to the harvest recorded last season, as shown in the 4th Survey on the crop released, this Wednesday (20/04), by the National Supply Company (Conab). This reduction is mainly explained by the adverse weather conditions recorded – from drought during the crop production cycle and the low temperatures recorded in June and July 2021 – which impacted the productivity of important producing regions.

“The combination of a drought in the second quarter, of an intensity that had not been seen for years, with low temperatures in June, July and August, and occasional frosts in several crops, caused a sharp drop in productivity in the Center-South region of the country. This also resulted in the anticipation of the harvest calendar in many crops, precisely to avoid greater quantitative and qualitative damage”, says the president of Conab, Guilherme Ribeiro.

In addition to the climate, Conab verified a 3,5% reduction in the area under sugarcane production, from 8,6 million hectares to 8,3 million hectares. The drop occurs despite a positive scenario for the sugar-energy sector, with attractive prices for sugar and ethanol. “Competition for area is increasing in Brazil. Land profitability is an increasingly decisive decision factor when choosing the activity to be implemented on land. The sum of the profitability of soybeans and corn in the same area is practically unbeatable. This explains the difficulty in expanding and even maintaining the sugarcane area. A factor to be considered, even in the decision, is the risk associated with productivity, at this point sugarcane still has an advantage”, highlights the director of Agricultural Information and Agricultural Policies at Conab, Sergio De Zen.

Despite having recorded the greatest reduction in area and productivity, the Southeast remains the main producing region in the country, with a harvest of 366,9 million tons – a decrease of 14,4% when compared to the previous cycle. In the Central-West and South, the bulletin points to a drop in production with a harvest of 131,3 million tons and 31,9 million tons, respectively. In the Northeast and North of the country, the planted area was smaller than the last harvest. However, in these regions, the climate was favorable, resulting in an increase in productivity. Final production reached 51,1 million tons in the northeastern states and 3,86 million tons in the northern producing areas.

Products

With the lower availability of raw materials, both sugar and ethanol production were reduced. For sugar, the drop reached 15% in relation to that produced in the 2020/21 harvest, estimated at 35,05 million tons. In the case of ethanol, total production, coming from sugar cane and corn, is 30,26 billion liters, a reduction of 7,7% compared to the last harvest.

In relation to biofuel produced from sugar cane, the percentage drop is 10% compared to 2020/21, reaching a production of 26,78 billion liters. Anhydrous ethanol production increased by 13,8%, reaching 10,6 billion liters. The total hydrate produced, in turn, was 16,18 billion liters, a decrease of 20,8%. 

On the other hand, total production of corn-based ethanol grew 14,9%, totaling 3,47 billion liters. In the case of anhydrous, the increase was 4,2%, with 972,55 million liters produced. For hydrated, production is 2,5 billion liters, signaling an increase of 19,7% compared to 2020/21.

Market

The combination of high international prices and a high exchange rate in Brazil were favorable to sugar exports in the 2021/22 harvest. Even so, exports fell 19,3% in the 2021/22 harvest, due to restricted product availability, with a shipped volume of 26 million tons. 

In the case of the ethanol market, Brazil exported 1,8 billion liters - which corresponds to a reduction of 38,9% compared to the previous cycle. The drop is also influenced by the limited production recorded in the current cycle. There was also a 34,6% drop in alcohol imports, estimated at 380,4 million liters, limited by the end of import quotas for ethanol from the United States.

Check out the complete data on the 4th Survey of the 2021/2022 Sugarcane Harvest and the market conditions for this product in Sugarcane Harvest Bulletin.