Abiove reinforces optimistic forecasts for soybean complex in 2025

The Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (Abiove) released its projections on the performance of the Soybean Complex for 2025. The data shows small variations in some numbers, but maintains the forecast of a new record for the sector. Soybean production grew 0,1% compared to the last estimates, reaching 169,7 million tons, while crushing is expected to remain the same, reaching 57,5 million tons. Soybean meal and soybean oil production will remain stable, reaching 44,1 million tons and 11,4 million tons, respectively.

In the export scenario, the numbers also remain optimistic. Brazil is expected to export 108,2 million tons of soybeans, a 0,3% drop compared to the latest projections.

Soybean meal and soybean oil are expected to remain at 23,6 million tons and 1,4 million tons, respectively. In addition, soybean oil imports are expected to remain stable at 100 tons, while soybean imports are expected to total 500 tons to complement the supply in the domestic market.

In contrast to the month of February, processing in March was 4,67 million tons, representing a significant increase of 29,7% and a decrease of 6,8% compared to March 2024, when adjusted for the sample percentage. In the year to date, processing was 11,65 million tons, an increase of 1,3% when compared to the same period in 2024.

Evolution of soybean oil prices

In April, refined soybean oil recorded its fourth consecutive month of price declines, accumulating a variation of -5,70% since the beginning of the year. In January, this reduction had already begun with a drop of -0,87%, according to official data.

This move comes at a time when discussions about the impact of biodiesel policy on the food market have resurfaced. Earlier this year, the decision not to move from B14 to B15 was attributed to concerns about potential pressure on soybean oil prices. But market data tells a different story.

Even with biodiesel production growing, up 8,2% in the first quarter and 10,1% in March 2025, compared to the same month of the previous year, the price of refined oil continued to fall. It is worth noting that there has been a systematic drop since December 2024 and that biodiesel prices went from R$6,50/liter to around R$5,00/liter (with PIS and Cofins and without ICMS), according to the ANP. This reinforces that biodiesel did not play a relevant role in any inflationary movement in the sector.

The gradual increase in the mix remains a measure aligned with decarbonization commitments and reinforces the importance of decisions based on concrete data and regulatory predictability.