ABIOVE projects record harvest in 2023

The Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (ABIOVE) updated the monthly statistics for the soybean complex in Brazil until October 2022 and released the first projection for the 2023 harvest.

Data from January to October this year, verified from a representative sample of around 85% of crushing in the country, indicate that soybean processing grew 5,8% compared to the same period in 2021, driven mainly by the increase in exports of soybean bran and oil, which registered 15,8 million tons (+9,5%) and 1,8 million tons (+43,8%), respectively. Given these volumes, the expected revenue from exports of the entire soybean complex – grain, bran and oil – is US$59,2 billion in 2022.

The production estimate for soybeans and their derivatives also underwent small adjustments in relation to the last update, being: i) soybeans in grain from 127 million tons to 127,7 million, ii) soybean meal from 37,5 million tons to 38 million, and iii) soybean oil from 9,9 million tons to 10,05 million. Soy processing this year is also expected to jump from 49 million tons to 49,7 million.

Projection for the 2023 harvest

ABIOVE's first projection for the next cycle points to a historic record in soybean production, 153,5 million tons. This is due to greater productivity - 3.700 kilos per hectare, against 3.080 observed in 2022 - and a slight increase in the planted area - from the current 41,3 million hectares to 43,1 million next year. In 2023, grain processing should also be the largest ever recorded in the entire historical series, 52,5 million tons.

Another substantial growth is due to exports of soybeans, from 77,5 million tons in 2022 to 93 million next year. The volumes of bran and oil destined for the international market indicate a small decline when compared to this year's numbers. Soybean meal from 20,2 million tons to 20 million and soybean oil from 2,4 to 1,6 million tons exported. However, the generation of foreign exchange from exports of the three products from the soybean complex could reach the mark of US$65,8 billion in 2023.