World coffee production was estimated at 167,2 million 60kg bags

The total forecast for coffee production and consumption, worldwide, estimated for the period of 12 consecutive months, specifically from October 2022 to September 2023, tends to remain relatively stable. Thus, in this global coffee growing context, the previous estimate of total production for the period in question was calculated at around 167,2 million 60kg bags, the physical volume of which, if confirmed, will represent a slight decrease of 2,1%, compared to the 170,83 million bags harvested in the twelve months between October 2021 and September 2022.

On the other hand, world coffee consumption is expected to reach the equivalent of 170,3 million 60kg bags of coffee, a performance that will represent a slight growth of 3,3%, on the same previous comparative basis, given that the previous period had a global consumption of 164,9 million bags. Therefore, global coffee consumption, if this data is confirmed, should surpass the total production volume by approximately 3,1 million bags from October 2022 to September 2023.

It is worth highlighting that the statistical data on the performance of global coffee farming that is the subject of this analysis are contained in the Coffee market report – December 2022, from the International Coffee Organization – ICO, document available in full on Coffee Observatory, from the Consórcio Pesquisa Café coordinated by Embrapa Café.

The ICO carries out its official records and assessments of world coffee production considering that the coffee year covers the period between the months of October and September, in the four major coffee growing regions of the planet: South America, Asia & Oceania, Central America & Mexico and Africa. And it also classifies coffees of the species Coffea arabica into three types: ‘Brazilian Naturals’, ‘Colombian Milds’ and ‘Other Milds’; and, finally, coffees of the species Coffea canefora in ‘Robustas’.

As stated in the ICO Report, which is the subject of this analysis, in the item “Exports by coffee groups”, specifically in the month of November 2022, global exports of green beans, at a global level, totaled 9,21 million bags, a physical volume that showed an increase of 10,8%, compared to the 8,31 million bags exported in the same month of the previous coffee year.

In relation to exports from the four major coffee producing regions mentioned above, exclusively in the month of November 2022, it is worth highlighting that sales abroad from South America, of all forms of coffee, totaled 4,96 million bags of 60kg, a number that represented an increase of 4,7%, compared to the same month in 2021.

In addition, exports from Asia & Oceania, which totaled 3,78 million bags in November 2022, registered a significant increase of 19% compared to November 2021. As for coffee exports from Mexico & Central America, which despite having reached only 0,41 million bags, they registered a drop of 7,1%, compared to 0,45 million bags exported in November 2021.

Complementing this analysis of coffee exports from the four producing regions, as shown in the December 2022 Report, from the ICO, it is worth highlighting that coffee exports from Africa increased by 6,8%, totaling 1,09 million bags in November 2022 , if this performance is also compared with the 1,02 million bags exported in November 2021.

In relation to exports of soluble coffee, also at a global level, there was a reduction of 3,2% in November 2022, totaling a physical volume equivalent to 0,97 million bags, compared to sales made by producing countries, which were 1 million bags, on the same comparative basis as the subject of this analysis.

In this same context, it should be noted that Brazil, the largest exporter of soluble coffee, sold 270 thousand bags in November 2022, followed by India which exported 190 thousand bags, and Indonesia with a volume equivalent to 150 thousand bags sold abroad, in November 2022.