World coffee consumption is expected to exceed 168 million bags in the 2019-2020 coffee year

The estimate for global coffee consumption in the 2019-2020 coffee year is 168,39 million 60kg bags, which represents an increase of 0,3% compared to the previous coffee year, which was 167,84 million of bags. The growing demand at the beginning of the global pandemic due to greater consumption at home, is now showing stability due to the prolonged economic crisis and the slow recovery of consumption away from home.

Regarding world production, it is estimated that the 2019-2020 coffee year will reach a volume of 169,34 million bags, a number that represents a reduction of 2,2% compared to the previous coffee year. The estimate is a 5% reduction in the production of Arabica coffee, which should reach a physical volume of 96 million bags, while for Robusta coffee the forecast is for an increase of 1,9%, reaching 73 million bags produced. 

With the exception of Asia & Oceania where a 2,2% increase in coffee production is forecast, reaching 50,92 million 60kg bags, declines in production are forecast in all other regions. Africa should see a slight reduction of 0,2% and reach 18,83 million bags, while in Central America & Mexico the expected reduction is 4,6% reaching 20,73 million bags. Finally, in South America, the largest coffee producing region in the world, the drop is estimated at 4,6% with the final production volume at around 78,87 million 60kg bags.

In relation to South America, it appears that in Colombia a 1,7% increase in production is expected, which should reach 14,1 million 60kg bags, while in Brazil, the largest producer in the world, the predicted drop is by 10%, reducing production volume to around 58 million 60kg bags in the 2019-2020 harvest year. The main reason for this strong drop in Brazilian production is the negative biennial of Arabica coffee, which is expected to see a reduction of 17,4% and close with 37,12 million bags, as the production of Robusta coffee is expected to increase by 3,4. 20,88% and reach XNUMX million bags.

The data presented here on the performance of coffee production, consumption and exports are included in the Coffee market report – August 2020, of the International Coffee Organization – ICO, an institution representing global coffee farming of which Brazil is a member country, and which brings together 76 coffee producing and consuming countries, as well as administering the International Coffee Agreement, which is published in full at the Coffee Observatory, from the Café Research Consortium, coordinated by Embrapa Coffee. Additionally, it is worth clarifying that the ICO coffee year covers the period from October to September.

Finally, with regard to exports, the ICO Report informs that global coffee exports in the first ten months of the current coffee year were 106,59 million 60kg bags, a volume that represents a 5,3% reduction compared to the same period last year.

Visit the Coffee Observatory website to read the full ICO Coffee Market Report – August 2020, at link.