With record exports, national coffee stocks may decline

With Brazilian coffee shipments at an accelerated pace, the expectation is that carryover stocks for the 2018/19 harvest will be lower than previously estimated, according to Cepea researchers. In May, total exports reached a new volume record for the month: there were 3,5 million 60 kg bags, an increase of 9,3% compared to April and more than double the quantity of May/18, according to data from Cecafé (Coffee Exporters Council). 

As for Brazilian stocks, the USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) revised the final balance to 3,8 million bags in May, against 6,8 million in the first estimate. The reduction in stocks will be reflected especially in 2019/20. With the lower production expected, especially due to the negative biennial period, and with expectations that consumption will continue to rise and shipments will remain at good levels, supply may be limited.