Wheat acreage is expected to decrease in São Paulo in the next harvest.

The wheat acreage in São Paulo is expected to decrease in the next winter harvest. This movement reflects the ample global supply and pressure on prices. This scenario dominated the first 2026 meeting of the São Paulo Wheat Sector Chamber, held last Thursday at the headquarters of the Capão Bonito Agroindustrial Cooperative.

The new president of the Chamber, Ruy Zanardi, assessed that the current moment demands caution in planning. According to him, the situation in the world grain market could reduce the cultivated area in the state this year. Zanardi considered that wheat remains among the main winter crop options, due to the liquidity guaranteed by the São Paulo milling industry and the agronomic gains for soybeans.

Reports from cooperatives reinforced that financial constraints and the weather window are hindering decisions for 2026. At Capal, projections indicate a 20% decrease in wheat acreage compared to the previous cycle. At Castrolanda, the crop area decreased from 5.700 to 4.590 hectares. Delays in the soybean harvest compromised the schedule. At Holambra, the forecast points to a maintenance of 25 hectares, but barley is increasing from 2 to 5 hectares. At the Capão Bonito Agricultural Cooperative, expectations remain at 4 hectares. Many producers have switched to late-planted second-crop corn.

According to StoneX's assessment, the international market is experiencing a period of abundant supply, with record production in Argentina and comfortable stocks. Argentine wheat has gained competitiveness and expanded its presence in markets such as China, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Bangladesh. For analyst Jonathan Pinheiro, this situation limits a price reaction in Brazil and discourages producers. He also pointed to a logistical impact on global trade, with a reduction in the flow of ships through the Red Sea and an increase in routes around the Cape of Good Hope.