Weak demand increases pressure on urea prices

Urea prices in Brazil fell for the sixth consecutive week, amid an international scenario marked by weakened demand and a loss of price support. According to an analysis by StoneX, the accumulated decline in Brazilian ports has already reached approximately 25%, with deals around US$600 per ton.

The downward trend is also observed in important global markets, such as the United States, China, Egypt, and Russia. According to the consultancy, buyers remain cautious given the still high prices and unattractive terms of trade. "As a result, commercial activity remains limited, evidencing weakened demand," states Tomás Pernías, analyst at StoneX.

Despite the series of declines, prices remain above the levels recorded before the start of the war in the Middle East, signaling that supply-related factors continue to support the international market.

Restricted logistics affect the market.

One of the main points of concern remains logistics in the Persian Gulf region. Since the beginning of the conflict, navigation through the Strait of Hormuz has remained practically paralyzed, hindering the flow of nitrogen fertilizers produced by countries dependent on the route.

The restriction directly affects products such as urea, ammonia, and sulfur, limiting global supply and preventing more significant price adjustments.

Nevertheless, the prevailing sentiment in the market remains bearish. Not even the announcement of a new purchase tender by India — traditionally seen as a factor supporting prices — was enough to reverse the recent trend, reinforcing the perception of weak global demand.