USDA presents new projections for wheat, oilseeds and cotton

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) report published today on agricultural supply and demand projects significant changes in estimates for wheat, oilseeds and cotton. Forecasts include reductions in US wheat and cotton production and increases in soybean production.

Wheat: drop in production and lower stocks

The projection for US wheat in 2024/25 indicates a reduction in reserves, a slight increase in domestic use, unchanged exports and lower ending stocks. Wheat production is expected to fall by 26 million bushels, totaling 1,982 million, due to less harvested area, partially offset by an increase in average yield. Harvested acreage was reduced by 0,9 million acres, while yield increased by 0,4 bushels per acre. Production of Hard Red Spring, Durum and Soft Red Winter decreased, while Hard Red Winter and White increased. Domestic use increased by 2 million bushels, mostly for food. Ending stocks are forecast to fall 28 million bushels for a total of 828 million. The average selling price remains at US$5,70 per bushel.

Globally, wheat supply, consumption and trade are expected to increase, with slightly lower ending stocks. Production is expected to grow mainly in Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Australia, offsetting the decline in the EU and the US. Global consumption is expected to reach a record 804 million tonnes, driven by use in animal feed in the EU, Kazakhstan and Ukraine. Global exports are expected to increase, particularly to Australia and Ukraine. Global ending stocks are projected at 256,6 million tonnes, the lowest since 2015/16.

Oilseeds: increase in soybean production and stocks

For soybeans, the forecast is for an increase in production, exports and ending stocks in the USA. Soybean production is expected to reach 4,6 billion bushels, an increase of 154 million due to greater area and yield. The harvested area is estimated at 86,3 million acres, 1 million more than in July. The predicted yield is 53,2 bushels per acre. Soybean exports are expected to grow by 25 million bushels due to increased supply, with ending stocks forecast at 560 million bushels, an increase of 125 million from the previous month. The average price of soybeans is expected to fall to US$10,80 per bushel.

Globally, oilseed production is expected to increase to 690,5 million tons, with emphasis on soybeans and rapeseed, despite the drop in the production of sunflower seeds, cotton, peanuts and palm. Rapeseed production is expected to increase in Russia, while sunflower production is expected to fall due to adverse weather conditions in Ukraine, Russia, the EU, Turkey, Serbia and Moldova. Global soybean exports are expected to increase, particularly in the US, Ukraine, Russia and Benin, while imports are expected to grow in Egypt, the EU, Iran and Turkey. Global soybean ending stocks are forecast at 134,3 million tonnes, with an increase in stocks in China, the USA and Argentina, offset by a decline in Brazil.

Cotton: reduction in production and stocks

Estimates for US cotton in 2024/25 show a reduction in planted area, production, exports and ending stocks. Production is estimated at 15,1 million bales, a drop of 1,9 million compared to the previous month. The planted area was reduced by 500.000 acres, with a 23% abandonment rate. The harvested area is 11% smaller, totaling 8,6 million acres. The estimated yield is 840 pounds per acre. Exports are expected to fall by 1 million bales due to lower global supply. Ending stocks are forecast at 4,5 million bales, a reduction of 800.000 bales. The average price of cotton was adjusted to 66 cents per pound.

Globally, cotton production, consumption, opening and ending stocks are expected to fall. Global production is projected to reduce by 2,6 million bales, mainly due to lower area and production in the US and India. Global consumption is expected to fall by almost 1 million bales, mainly due to the reduction in China. Global ending stocks are estimated at 77,6 million bales, down 5 million from July. The "A" Index, a benchmark for world cotton prices, was reduced to 81,5 cents per pound.

Corn: increase in production and exports in the USA

United States corn production for 2024/25 is forecast at 15,1 billion bushels, an increase of 47 million from the previous month. This growth occurs despite a 0,7 million acre reduction in harvested area, offset by an increase in yield. The first research-based yield forecast for the season is 183,1 bushels per acre, an all-time high, surpassing the previous projection by 2,1 bushels.

The states of Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, Nebraska and South Dakota expect higher yields compared to the previous year, while Ohio projects a decline.

Total U.S. corn use for 2024/25 is forecast to increase by 60 million bushels to reach 15,0 billion. However, corn used for glucose, dextrose and starch is expected to decline based on observed usage in 2023/24. Exports, in turn, were increased by 75 million bushels, reaching 2,3 billion, reflecting US competitiveness in the export market and relatively low prices on the global market.

With the increase in supply lower than use, ending stocks are expected to fall by 24 million bushels, closing at 2,1 billion. The average price of corn received by producers is estimated at US$4,20 per bushel, a reduction of 10 cents.

Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast to fall by 8,1 million tonnes, totaling 1,504 billion tonnes. Corn production outside the US is expected to decline due to cuts in the European Union, Russia, Serbia, Ukraine and Moldova. Extreme heat and drought in southeastern Europe and the South and North Caucasus regions of Russia in July reduced yield prospects.

Corn production in Ukraine was also revised downwards, with an increase in harvested area not being enough to offset the drop in yield expectations due to heat and drought in the main corn-growing regions.

For 2024/25, US corn exports are forecast to increase, while those from the European Union, Serbia, Ukraine, Russia and India are expected to decline. Corn imports will be high for India and Zimbabwe, but reduced for Iran, Chile, Egypt, Nepal and Vietnam. US sorghum exports are expected to fall, with a reduction in imports by China. Barley exports are expected to increase in Kazakhstan and Ukraine, but decrease in the European Union.

Global corn ending stocks are projected at 310,2 million tons, a drop of 1,5 million from the previous month. The reduction in inventories is expected to occur mainly in the European Union, Pakistan, Nigeria and Serbia, partially offset by increases in Mexico and India.