| Agriculture

USDA Reduces U.S. Soybean and Corn Crop Estimates

Smaller harvested area and tighter stocks put pressure on North American supply, while Brazil and Argentina gain ground.

11.07.2025 | 17:35 (UTC -3)

Cultivar Magazine, based on information from the USDA

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released this Friday (11/7) the July edition of the WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) report, with a reduction in the estimates for soybean and corn production in the United States for the 2025/26 season.

The North American production of soybean was estimated at 4,3 billion bushels, 5 million less than projected the previous month, due to the smaller harvested area. Average yield remained at 52,5 bushels per acre. Despite the drop in production, the USDA raised its crushing projection by 50 million bushels, reaching 2,54 billion, driven by increased demand for soybean oil for biofuels.

On the other hand, U.S. soybean exports were revised downward by 70 million bushels, totaling 1,75 billion, reflecting increased domestic demand, growing competitiveness from Argentina and Ukraine, and expectations of increased Brazilian supply starting in September. Ending stocks rose to 310 million bushels.

Globally, soybean production was adjusted upward, particularly in Ukraine. Global crushing increased by 1,1 million tons, while exports fell, driven by a reduction in the United States. Ending stocks rose to 126,1 million tons, with increases in the US and Brazil.

For corn, the USDA also reduced U.S. production by 115 million bushels, to 14,86 billion, after revising planted and harvested areas downward. Yield, however, remained unchanged at 181,0 bushels per acre. With lower supplies and a 50 million-bushel reduction in total use, ending stocks were projected at 1,6 billion bushels, 90 million below the previous estimate. U.S. exports were increased by 100 million bushels, potentially reaching a record 2,8 billion.

Regarding the foreign market, the report indicates an increase in corn production in Canada, Mexico, Brazil, and the Philippines. Expectations for Brazil were raised based on the positive results of the second crop harvest in the Central-West region. For 2025/26, global corn stocks were estimated at 272,1 million tons, a decrease of 3,2 million tons, with declines in China and India partially offset by increases in Brazil.