This year's drought is the worst in history, says Cemaden

The drought that began in 2023 and is still ongoing – with rainfall levels below the historical average – covers around 5 million square kilometers, which corresponds to 59% of the national territory. The data is in the Technical Note from Cemaden (National Center for Monitoring and Alerts for Natural Disasters) prepared at the beginning of the month, which outlines the climate conditions of the last 75 years and confirms that the Amazon, Cerrado and Pantanal biomes are experiencing the worst drought since 1950.

Cemtec/MS (Center for Weather and Climate Monitoring), an agency linked to the Secretariat for the Environment, Development, Science, Technology and Innovation (Semadesc), has analyzed climate data from recent years and issued repeated alerts for anomalies both in low rainfall levels, which cause a reduction in the volume of rivers, and for rising temperatures, which worsen the situation and require special care and measures to adapt to the new reality.

Before this drought, the worst recorded so far was that of 2015-2016, which affected around 4,6 million square kilometers (approximately 54% of the country). The previous most severe drought was the 1997-1998 drought, which covered around 3,6 million square kilometers, equivalent to 42% of the national territory.

By September 2024, approximately 1.200 municipalities in Brazil faced severe drought conditions. In July, of the 45 municipalities in Mato Grosso do Sul analyzed by Cemtec-MS, 31 municipalities had rainfall well below the historical average. The Pantanal region has been experiencing severe and prolonged droughts since 2019, with the years 2019-2022 marked by extreme weather events, including three consecutive episodes of El Niño, which consists of the warming of the waters of the Pacific Ocean, a phenomenon that causes climate change across the planet.

“Below-average rainfall, high temperatures, and critical river levels indicate a situation of extreme water scarcity and increasing environmental vulnerability. This combination of factors creates an environment conducive to the spread of forest fires in the Pantanal, which have already been a recurring concern in the Pantanal during dry periods. In addition, the scarcity of water resources aggravates challenges related to water supply, agriculture and livestock, and compromises the functioning of vital ecosystem services, such as climate regulation and the maintenance of biodiversity,” continues the Cemaden study.

On October 18, the Paraguay River reached its lowest level ever recorded at the Ladário river gauge station, -69 centimeters. The critical situation was not limited to the Ladário region, as another record low of just 53 centimeters was broken in Porto Murtinho on October 24. In light of this, Imasul (the Mato Grosso do Sul Environmental Institute) issued a warning about environmental and operational risks associated with the extreme event.

A forecast made by Cemtec/MS technicians based on different climate models concludes that rainfall should remain within or close to the historical average in Mato Grosso do Sul during the spring that ends in December. Temperatures tend to close the period above the historical average, which reinforces the alert for the risk of forest fires, especially in the Pantanal and Southwest regions.