The South region received the highest volumes of rain in the country in September

The states of Mato Grosso and Goiás, in the Central-West Region, the states of Pará, Amapá and Tocantins, in the North Region, the states of Maranhão, Piauí, Ceará, Rio Grande do Norte, Paraíba and Bahia, in the Northeast Region, and the states of Minas Gerais, Espírito Santo and Rio de Janeiro, in the Southeast Region, were those that received the lowest volumes of rain in the country during the month of September.

Rains of up to 60 mm were recorded in São Paulo, Mato Grosso do Sul, Rondônia, Acre, Amazonas, Amapá, Pernambuco, Alagoas and Sergipe. The states in the Southern Region received the highest volumes of rain in the country, with emphasis on Rio Grande do Sul, where more than 320 mm was accumulated in large areas.

Soil water storage values ​​of less than 15% were recorded across almost the entire length of the North, Northeast and Central-West regions. In the Southeast Region and in a large part of Mato Grosso do Sul, storage remained between 15 and 30%. In the center-north of Paraná, storage ranged from 30 to 45%, in the south of the state, from 45 to 60%. In Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul, conditions were more favorable; in both states, storage remained between 60 and 75%.

In almost the entire territory of the states of Maranhão, Piauí, Tocantins and Mato Grosso and in large areas of Rondônia, Goiás and Pará, the highest temperatures in the country were recorded, exceeding 35 °C. In other states in the North and Central-West regions and in the states of Ceará, Rio Grande do Norte and Paraíba, the maximum temperatures were between 33 and 35 °C. In the other states of the Northeast Region and the Southeast Region, the average maximums varied from 27 to 31 °C, with the exception of São Paulo, where the maximums remained, predominantly, between 31 and 33 °C. In the South Region, temperatures were milder: below 25 °C in Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul and between 27 and 31 °C in Paraná.

The lowest temperatures in the country, below 15°C, were recorded in Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul. In the center-north of Paraná and the Southeast Region, minimums of 17 to 19°C prevailed. In some areas of the northwest and southeast of Rio Grande do Sul, in the south of Paraná and in a large part of Minas Gerais, the minimum temperatures were between 15 and 17 °C. In the Central-West Region and in the states of Ceará, Rio Grande do Norte, Paraíba and Alagoas, minimum temperatures of 21 to 23°C predominated. In Bahia, Sergipe and Pernambuco, the minimum temperatures ranged from 19 to 21°C. In the North Region and in the states of Maranhão and Piauí, the minimum temperatures were between 23 and 25 °C.

Weather and Brazilian agriculture

The outlook for the 2023-2024 soybean harvest is optimistic. According to the National Supply Company (Conab), Brazil is expected to produce 162,43 million tons of grain. If the projection comes true, this will be a new production record, 5,1% higher than that obtained in the previous harvest.

Conab also projects an increase of 2,8% in the cultivated area, from 44,07 million hectares in the last harvest to 45,29 million hectares in the current harvest. The largest increase in sown area should occur in Matopiba (+6,5%), and in the states of Goiás (+2,7%), Rio Grande do Sul (+1,8%), Mato Grosso (+1%) and Paraná (+0,8%).

The Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock (Mapa) published on September 11th the soybean sowing calendar for the 2023-2024 harvest for 21 units of the Federation. The sowing calendar consists of a phytosanitary measure complementary to the sanitary void, which aims to minimize as much as possible the inoculum of Asian soybean rust, considered one of the most severe diseases affecting the crop, which can occur at any phenological stage and cause losses in crop productivity. up to 90%.

On September 15, Mapa changed the sowing calendar in five states, Rondônia, Bahia, Paraná, Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul, in response to requests from the respective state health and plant defense bodies. In the South Region, instead of a single period for each State, distinct sowing windows were established for different regions. Paraná and Santa Catarina were dissatisfied with the changes, due to the shortening of the deadline for sowing.

According to the Department of Rural Economy (Deral), approximately 16% of the projected area has already been sown in Paraná. Paraná's crops are in the germination and vegetative development phases, and are predominantly in good condition. In the west, center-west and southwest regions of Paraná, soil moisture has made it possible to advance sowing, but high temperatures continue to worry producers across the state.

In Mato Grosso, sowing was allowed on September 16th, but it is worth mentioning that a group of producers received authorization from Mapa to start soybean sowing before the end of the sanitary vacuum, aiming at the early harvest of the oilseed and the anticipation of sowing. of cotton in the same areas.

According to the latest survey released by the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea), sowing has already been completed in 4,19% of the area projected for Mato Grosso and is 0,16 p.p. ahead of the average of the last five harvests. , and 2,10 p.p. behind in relation to the previous harvest.

The pace of sowing operations in the State lost speed due to the lack of regular rain associated with the extreme heat at the end of September, caused by the presence of a center of high atmospheric pressure, which prevented the advance of cold fronts and promoted warming and decrease of air humidity. The increase in soil temperature is also a concern, especially in areas with bare soil, as it can harm the quality of the seeds. Given these conditions, many producers chose to postpone the start of sowing to minimize risks, a decision that could affect the performance of the second harvest.

The harvest of second crop corn is heading towards the final phase, with 98,2% of the area harvested, according to the latest survey released by Conab, at the end of September. With the end of the harvest in Mato Grosso, Imea consolidated the productivity and production of the 2022-23 corn harvest. Reported productivity was 116,87 sc/ha, an increase of 14,32% compared to the previous cycle, and production was consolidated at 52,54 million tons in the 2022-23 harvest, 19,84% higher than the harvest last. The State's record yields were attributed to favorable weather conditions during the cropping cycle, mainly due to the postponement of rains, which allowed even areas that were outside the ideal sowing window to benefit. In Goiás, the second harvest of corn was favored by the weather conditions and ended in the first week of September, with good productivity and grain quality.

The evolution of the corn harvest in the State was driven by the low humidity and low volumes of rain that occurred in Goiás during the period, with the exception of the end of August, but this volume did not harm the progress of the harvest. In Mato Grosso do Sul, Conab reported that the harvest reached 96% of the sown area. According to Aprosoja/MS, the harvest is more advanced in the northern region, but is delayed in relation to the 2021-22 harvest.

The harvest pace in the State was hampered by intense winds in August and September, which caused corn to fall, especially in the southern region. Furthermore, the progress of harvesting operations was also hampered by rains in Mato Grosso do Sul, with significant volumes from the last ten days of August until mid-September.

In Paraná, second-crop corn harvesting operations are delayed compared to the last harvest, but are moving towards completion. In its latest update, Deral/PR reported that 99% of the sown area has been harvested. Of the remaining crops, 1% develop under poor conditions, 21% under intermediate conditions and 78% under favorable conditions.

The progress of the harvest in Paraná was compromised by high volumes of rain, with accumulated rainfall reaching 80 mm in the first ten days of September, in addition to the high percentage of lodging plants, which slowed down operations. In general, corn yields in the State's fields are as expected or slightly above average, but the majority of producers in Paraná will not be able to cover their production costs, due to lower-than-expected prices.

In São Paulo, although the harvest is delayed compared to the previous harvest, weather conditions have favored the advancement of operations in São Paulo's crops, reaching 80% of the sown area. In Minas Gerais, the second crop corn harvest was hampered by rains at the beginning of September, but progressed with the reduction in rainfall and lower humidity.

The sowing of first-crop corn is progressing mainly in the southern states of the country. According to Conab estimates, the area destined for corn production in Brazil in the 2023-24 harvest will be reduced, with a decrease of 5,8% in the first harvest, due to the reduction in grain prices on both the national and international markets. According to the Company's latest survey, corn sowing reached 18,3% of the projected national area.

In its latest update, Deral/PR reported that sowing reached 71% in crops in Paraná, with 93% developing under favorable conditions, 7% under intermediate conditions and none under poor conditions. Sowing is more delayed in the north and northwest regions of Paraná, where producers are waiting for favorable weather conditions for planting. High volumes of rain at the beginning of September in Paraná caused germination failures in some mesoregions of Paraná, but the subsequent reduction in rainfall allowed sowing to advance. The high humidity, especially at the beginning of the month, favored the advancement of planting in the southern region, where the planting of commercial corn is practically completed.

In other regions of Paraná, planting and crops are developing well. However, points of corn leafhopper infestation have been recorded in crops, leading producers to intensify monitoring and adopt control measures against the pest.

According to Emater/RS, the area sown with first-crop corn reached 55% of the cultivation projection in Rio Grande do Sul, with the majority of crops in the germination and vegetative development phases. Rainfall volumes in the State during the month of September were high, exceeding 200 mm in the first ten days of the month.

Excessive rain prevented a significant increase in the sown area, which went from 42% at the beginning of the month to just 55% at the end. The west, northwest and north regions of Rio Grande do Sul are close to the completion of sowing, but the south, central and northeast regions had their planting progress compromised by the rains, which led to soil saturation, which made the transit of the crop unfeasible. machinery, in addition to harming seed germination, causing a reduction in plant stand.

Excess moisture in the soil also made it difficult to carry out cultural treatments on crops, such as the application of nitrogen fertilizers, herbicides and insecticides. It was necessary to reapply nitrogen fertilizers on top due to leaching losses following the large volumes of rain that affected the State. In Santa Catarina, sowing has been progressing satisfactorily in all regions. Although problems with leafhopper and thrips infestation have been reported, most crops are in good condition.

The wheat harvest reached 29% of the sown area, according to the latest survey carried out by Conab. In Rio Grande do Sul, the harvest began in the last week of September and reached 1% of the cultivated area in the State, according to Emater/RS. The crops are predominantly in the reproductive phase, with 23% in flowering and 54% in grain filling.

Adverse climatic events that occurred in the first half of September severely impacted the productive potential of the crop in Rio Grande do Sul. There was a large volume of rain in the period, as well as excess humidity and increased temperature, which increased producers' concerns regarding the incidence of fungal diseases in crops, especially Fusarium head blight and blast, favored under these conditions.

Due to excess water in the soil, fungicide application operations were compromised and treatments were not sufficient to contain damage in some crops, where symptoms of atrophy or death of reproductive organs were observed, interrupting grain growth.

In its latest update, Deral/PR reported that 60% of the area sown with wheat in Paraná has already been harvested. The fruiting and maturation stages predominate in the remaining crops, of which 5% develop under poor conditions, 20% under intermediate conditions and 75% under favorable conditions. Excessive rainfall during the crop development cycle in the State made it impossible to carry out cultural treatments at the appropriate time, such as the application of fungicides, which resulted in a high incidence of fungal diseases, mainly blast, which was also favored by high temperatures during the Paraná winter.

In crops affected by the disease, a reduction in productivity is expected due to compromised grain formation. Furthermore, the strong winds that occurred in some municipalities caused the wheat to become lodging. Despite this, the harvest of the first wheat areas in the southern region has begun and has shown good productivity and quality, even with the appearance of Fusarium head blight and blast.

In Minas Gerais, the harvest was slowed down at the beginning of the month due to the rains at the end of August and the beginning of September. The reduction in rainfall allowed harvesting operations to progress, which are coming to an end in the State, with only a few areas remaining, most of which are irrigated. In São Paulo, the wheat harvest reached 35% of the sown area and incidences of powdery mildew and rust were observed, but without high levels of damage.

The cotton harvest has already been practically completed in the entire national cultivated area. In Mato Grosso, according to Imea, harvesting operations ended in the second ten days of September, with an average productivity of 305,97@/ha of seed cotton. In general, climatic conditions throughout the cycle allowed cotton to develop well.

In Mato Grosso do Sul, the harvest was also completed, producers began to work more intensely on destroying ratoons, transporting the bales to the cotton gins and processing the lint. In Goiás, the yields obtained are within expectations and the harvest is moving into the final phase. The remaining crops in Goiás are predominantly irrigated and are located in the western region of the state. The pace of harvesting operations remains within normal limits due to the lack of rain in recent weeks.

In Bahia, there are only crops left to be harvested in the western region. Good productivity and excellent fiber quality are observed in crops in this region. The harvest fronts advance quickly in Bahia due to the beginning of the sanitary void and the need to prepare the soil for the 2023-2024 harvest.

In Maranhão, the first and second harvest crops have already been completely harvested, the yields obtained were lower than expected. In Minas Gerais, the harvest was completed with good productivity and fiber quality. Conab released the first estimate for the 2023-2024 harvest for Brazilian cotton farming, and the outlook is not positive. According to the data presented, the area destined for cotton cultivation will be 1,70 million ha, 2% larger than that observed in the last harvest.

However, average productivity will be approximately 283,67 @/ha of seed cotton, 7,39% lower than expected in the 2022-2023 harvest. This projection of yield loss is due to the likely impacts of El Niño in this cycle, which will bring less favorable weather conditions for the new harvest. Considering the new area and productivity estimates, the projected production of seed cotton will be 7,22 million tons, 5,53% less than what was produced in the 2022-2023 harvest.

The harvest of third-crop beans is advancing in Bahia, where crops have been showing a drop in productivity due to water restrictions throughout the crop cycle. Dry weather prevailed in the Bahian territory in September, which, on the one hand, favored the natural drying of grains and the progress of the harvest, reduced the productive potential of crops and compromised the quality of grains, especially late crops, which were exposed for longer to the lack of rain, including during the flowering and grain filling phases, which are more demanding on water.

A similar situation has been occurring in Pará, where high temperatures and low rainfall have harmed the productive potential of crops in the flowering and grain filling phase. The crops are mainly maturing and were not benefited by the rains that occurred at the end of September in the bean-producing municipalities. The harvest reached around 30% of the area sown in the State.

In Minas Gerais, the rains in the first half of September did not harm the progress of the harvest, which is in the final stretch, with around 90% of the bean area harvested. Although the grain maturation phase was marked by periods of drought and rain interspersed, the product has shown quality and good yield.

In Goiás, the harvest was completed respecting the sanitary void period. The yields obtained were satisfactory, as was the quality of the grains, which did not have their natural drying affected by the rains at the beginning of September. The sowing of the first bean crop is progressing in Paraná, with 45% of the area designed for the crop already sown, according to Deral/PR. The crops are mainly undergoing vegetative development, which may be harmed by the decrease in rainfall and the increase in temperature in the State.