The rice supply chain is expected to maintain an adverse scenario throughout 2026.

The crisis that severely affected the rice production chain throughout 2025 is expected to extend into 2026, demanding even greater resilience from producers and industries. In Santa Catarina, the Rice Industry Union (SindArroz-SC) is closely monitoring market developments, given a scenario marked by oversupply and falling prices. The organization expects the sector to continue facing difficulties throughout the year, with the possibility of recovery beginning only in the last quarter, close to the 26/27 harvest.

According to the president of SindArroz-SC, Walmir Rampinelli, the continued pressure on prices is directly associated with the high volume of grains still available on the market. "The excess of rice in stock limits any possibility of price increases in the short term. This requires Santa Catarina's industries to act cautiously, focusing on cost reduction and efficient management strategies," he states.

The indication of improved prices at the end of 2026 is related to the forecast of lower planting for the 26/27 crop, due to producers' lack of capital. "Farmers will arrive at the beginning of the cycle without sufficient resources to invest in the crop, which should result in a new and even more pronounced reduction in the cultivated area. This reduction in supply tends to rebalance the market, creating conditions for a gradual increase in the price of rice," projects Rampinelli.

The 2025/2026 harvest is progressing steadily.

Despite the crisis context, the 25/26 crop in Santa Catarina is developing normally from an agronomic point of view. The weather conditions so far have favored plant growth, with adequate heat, rain, and sunlight. "We may not have record productivity levels, especially due to high production costs, but we expect a stable harvest compared to the recent historical average," explains the president.

Data from Epagri/Cepa indicate a 1,28% reduction in planted area compared to the 24/25 harvest, in addition to a 6,11% drop in total production, equivalent to 79,3 fewer tons. Even so, the sector demonstrates its capacity for adaptation and resilience in the face of adversity.

Institutional coordination will be intensified.

Throughout 2025, SindArroz-SC maintained constant dialogue with political leaders, public authorities, and representatives of the sector, seeking alternatives to mitigate the impacts of the crisis. One of the main initiatives was the mobilization of the Santa Catarina Rice Sector Chamber, with the participation of state deputy José Milton Scheffer and other entities linked to the rice production chain. The objective was to gather information, present the sector's demands, and submit concrete proposals to the state and federal governments.

For 2026, the union will continue to work on strategic agendas focused on strengthening competitiveness, encouraging exports, and promoting rice as an essential food for the population's food security. "Our commitment remains firm: to represent the interests of the industry, promote sustainable development, and ensure that the rice chain continues to be an economic and social pillar for Santa Catarina and for Brazil," says Rampinelli.

Promoting the value of rice and encouraging its consumption.

Given the challenges faced by the sector, SindArroz-SC also reinforces the importance of valuing rice as an essential food on the Brazilian table. In 2026, the organization will expand its awareness campaigns with society, highlighting the nutritional, cultural, and economic attributes of the grain. "Encouraging conscious and qualified consumption of rice is also a way to strengthen the entire production chain and generate recognition for the work of thousands of families who depend on this crop," argues the organization's president.