Industry sustains slight increase of 0,5% in rice prices in January.

The rice market began 2026 with discreet price increases, but still under strong pressure from oversupply. According to Itaú BBA's Monthly Agro report, prices rose only 0,5% in January, closing the month at R$ 53,39/sc. Although there was a slight firmness until February 10th (R$ 54,44/sc) due to restocking by the industry, resistance from retailers and the high volume available prevent more consistent increases.

The sector is closely monitoring the progress of the 2025/26 harvest. In Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina, the crops are showing excellent development, benefiting from favorable weather conditions. However, the proximity of the harvest peak in March, coupled with an estimated carryover stock of 2,4 million tons by Conab, is generating concern. Even with a production forecast 13% lower than the previous cycle, the market is dealing with the effects of the accumulated oversupply.

International Influence and Exports 

On the external front, the scenario is also bearish. Record Indian production and reduced tariffs for the US market (from 50% to 18%) increase the competitiveness of Asian grain, putting pressure on global prices.

In Brazil, exports totaled 229 tons in January. Although this is the highest volume for the month in five years, the figure represents an 8,8% drop compared to December, impacted by the appreciation of the real, which reduced the competitiveness of the national product.

The trend for the coming months is for continued pressure on prices, as the new crop enters the market and encounters a still slow pace of sales.