The July to September quarter will have dry and hot weather

The National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) released its climate forecast for the quarter of July, August, and September 2025, highlighting the predominance of below-average rainfall and high temperatures across most of Brazil. Exceptions include the South, where rainfall is expected to exceed historical standards, and specific areas in the North, such as Amapá, northwestern Pará, and Roraima.

According to the survey, the Central-West, Southeast, and interior of the Northeast are expected to face a drier period, with significant soil moisture losses and an increase in water deficits, which could exceed 100 mm in some states. This situation requires extra attention from producers, especially when managing crops in the final stages of development or harvest.

North: Despite the forecast of above-average rainfall in Amapá and Roraima, the scenario is drought-prone in southern Pará, Rondônia, and Tocantins. In these areas, soil water storage is expected to remain below 30% for the coming months, which could negatively affect growing crops. Temperatures are also expected to be above historical averages, with peaks of up to 2°C above normal.

Northeast: On the northeastern coast, rainfall is expected to be within average levels and water reserves are adequate for short-cycle crops, such as third-season beans. However, the interior of the region, especially in Piauí, Ceará, Bahia, and the Pernambuco hinterland, is expected to face a severe water deficit, directly impacting dryland crops and pastures. Temperatures are expected to be up to 1°C above average.

Midwest: During the region's typical dry season, the forecast indicates below-average rainfall in all states. Soil water levels continue to decline, with storage levels below 30% in Goiás, the Federal District, and northern Mato Grosso. In addition to the damage to maturing crops, such as second-crop corn, the risk of wildfires and respiratory diseases associated with dry air increases.

Southeast: Most of the Southeast is expected to experience below-average rainfall, especially in Rio de Janeiro, south-central Minas Gerais, and inland São Paulo. The water deficit intensifies between August and September, with expected impacts on the development of dryland wheat and perennial crops in the grain-filling phase. Temperatures could be up to 2°C above average in western São Paulo and Minas Gerais.

South: The forecast is positive for farmers in the South. Most of Rio Grande do Sul will experience above-average rainfall, particularly in south-central Rio Grande do Sul and areas of Santa Catarina. Soil moisture levels are expected to remain high, favoring the development of wheat and other winter crops. However, Paraná may experience below-average rainfall, requiring localized attention.

Oceanic conditions

Analysis by the International Climate Research Institute (IRI) indicates that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon will remain neutral during the July-August-September quarter, with a 71% probability. This condition reduces the predictability of climate extremes, requiring constant attention to weekly and monthly updates from meteorological institutes.