The next quarter will be hotter and with below-average rainfall in much of the country, indicates Inmet

The National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet) published this week the Agroclimatological Bulletin for the month of July, with analyzes of climatic conditions during the period and forecasts for the months of August, September and October 2024. According to the document, July was marked by accumulated of rain above 150 mm in the extreme north and south of the country, as well as on the east coast of the Northeast. In these areas, rainfall was sufficient to maintain high soil moisture. 

In the Central-West and Southeast regions, in addition to the interior of the Northeast region, drought predominated. In areas with rainfall, volumes were less than 40 mm, reducing water levels in the soil, mainly in the southeast of Piauí, the middle west of Bahia and the north of Minas Gerais. 

In the northern part of the North Region, rainfall volumes exceeded 150 mm, mainly in Roraima and northern Amazonas, where rainfall exceeded 300 mm. In areas of central Amazonas and northern Pará, rainfall values ​​between 40 and 70 mm were recorded. The south of the Amazon region is in its driest month, with rainfall volumes of less than 30 mm and no rain in the states of Tocantins and Rondônia. In general, soil water storage levels are favorable in the region, except in the State of Tocantins, where humidity levels are low.

In the interior of the Northeast and in Matopiba, rainfall volumes were less than 30 mm, with areas without precipitation, mainly in the southeast of Piauí and western Bahia. Despite the reduction in rainfall, conditions remain favorable for the maturation and harvest of second-crop cotton and corn.

Since the beginning of the dry season, soil moisture levels have been reduced in all States, except in the south of Mato Grosso do Sul, where localized rains contributed to maintaining favorable moisture levels for wheat crops. 

Much of the country recorded average minimum temperatures below 25ºC. In the South Region, due to the entry of cold air masses, temperatures below zero and strong frosts were recorded. 

What will the next few months be like? 

According to the bulletin, temperatures are expected to remain above average in much of the country. In Northern Region, below average rainfall should occur, only in the extreme north of Roraima and Amapá do forecasts indicate rainfall conditions close to or slightly above average. 

Higher temperatures are also expected in the south of the Amazon, due to the reduction in rainfall and which, combined with low humidity, favors the incidence of fires and forest fires. The document also indicates low soil moisture levels over the next three months in much of the North Region.

Na North East Region, the scenario repeats itself with below-average rainfall and air temperature above the region's historical average. The forecast for the next three months indicates high levels of water in the soil only on the east coast of the Northeast. In other areas, low levels of soil moisture will predominate.

The dry period observed since May in Midwest region should also prevail, with a tendency for below-average rainfall and a decrease in relative humidity, with daily values ​​that could be below 30%. Temperatures will remain above average in the coming months, with the possibility of a few days of excess heat in some areas, favoring the occurrence of bushfires and forest fires. 

With the reduction in rainfall and the rise in temperatures, a reduction in water levels in the soil is expected across practically the entire region over the next three months. In the south of Mato Grosso do Sul, humidity levels may remain at satisfactory levels.

Just like in the Central-West Region, the month of July tends to be drier in Southeast, where below-average rainfall is expected to predominate. Temperatures tend to remain above the historical average in the coming months in much of the region. The document points to the reduction of soil water storage in a large part of the region. Only in the east and southeast of São Paulo will water levels in the soil remain satisfactory.

Already in South, the forecast indicates favorable conditions for above-average rainfall in the central and southern part of the South Region. In areas of central-northern Paraná, the forecast is for rainfall conditions close to and below average. The air temperature is expected to prevail above the historical average in a large part of the region, especially in the extreme north of Paraná, where the highest temperature values ​​should be recorded. Despite this, some regions are expected to experience frost, especially those at higher altitudes. 

The water balance forecast for the coming months indicates high soil moisture levels in a large part of the South Region. In the north of Paraná, the forecast for the quarter indicates lower soil moisture levels. 

Ocean conditions and trends

The Enos forecast model from the Apec Climate Center (APCC), a research center based in South Korea, points to a transition from Neutral conditions to the beginning of La Niña in the quarter August-September-October/2024 (ASO/2024) , with a probability of 58%. 

In the quarter September-October-November/2024 (SON/2024), the probability of the phenomenon starting increases to 60%.