The last quarter of 2025 will be decisive for the soybean market

The end of 2025 brings with it a scenario of record soybean harvest and exports to Brazil, according to Ana Luiza Lodi, Market Intelligence specialist at StoneX, a global financial services company. The last quarter of the year will be decisive, marked by geopolitical uncertainty, weather in South America, and political decisions that could shape the course of the global soybean market.

In her analysis in the Quarterly Commodity Outlook Report, Ana highlights that, in Brazil, the projection is for production of 178,7 million tons in the 2025/26 cycle, driven by growth in the planted area to 48,3 million hectares and recovery of productivity in Rio Grande do Sul, which alternates with Paraná as the second largest national producer.

"Planting is further along than last year, with the return of rains being closely monitored. Any initial delays don't necessarily represent losses for soybeans, but they could affect second-crop crops like corn and cotton," he noted.

Brazilian exports remain buoyant and are expected to reach a record 107 million tons in 2025, according to the expert. This performance has maintained the country's strong base, reflecting strong external demand, especially from China. Domestically, the biofuels market is also contributing to demand, with an increase in the mandatory blending of biodiesel into diesel, boosting soybean oil consumption.

Keeping an eye on the weather 

Climate is the main risk factor for the South American harvest. Conditions for a La Niña phenomenon are present, with the possibility of persisting until early 2026. The cooling of the equatorial Pacific waters tends to cause drier weather in the southern part of the continent, especially affecting Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay, and southern Brazil. However, forecasts indicate that La Niña will be short-lived and weak, which could mitigate the negative impacts. Furthermore, milder temperatures could reduce the effects of lower humidity, and other Brazilian regions may experience above-average rainfall.

The Rio Grande do Sul harvest, which begins later, will be closely monitored after consecutive years of losses due to weather issues. The performance of crops in southern Brazil will be crucial in confirming the national production record. If the weather cooperates, Brazil should consolidate its position as the world's largest soybean producer and exporter, directly influencing the global supply and demand balance.

Soybean harvest in neighboring countries

In South America, Paraguay projects a recovery in productivity, with total production—including main and second harvests—exceeding 10 million tons. Argentina, in turn, is expected to reduce its soybean acreage in the 2025/26 crop year, with corn gaining ground following more favorable weather conditions at the beginning of the corn crop year. Argentine soybean planting begins in the second half of October, and the outcome will depend on rainfall in the coming months.

Despite continued demand growth, no country is currently driving global consumption with the same force as China did in previous decades. Biofuels represent a growing segment, but they are heavily dependent on public policies, which can be altered by factors such as inflation, changes in government, and political alignment. For now, the US should expand its renewable diesel mandates, and Brazil should continue increasing its mandatory biodiesel blending.

United States and the new geopolitical “chess game”

In the United States, the 2025/26 harvest is progressing with record productivity, although total production was limited by the reduction in planted area, partly redirected to corn. Domestic consumption remains firm, sustaining the balance between supply and demand, while soybean crushing remains buoyant, thanks to good margins and demand for meal and oil. The outlook for the use of soybean oil in biofuels is positive, but still depends on political decisions.

In the foreign market, American exports are facing difficulties due to the absence of China, which has prioritized Brazilian soybeans and increased purchases from Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay. Trade relations between the two countries remain tense, and the market cautiously awaits a meeting between their leaders scheduled for October.