Global fertilizer market enters another contraction.

The international fertilizer market is entering a new phase of contraction, as rising prices begin to weigh on global demand. This assessment comes from Rabobank, in an analysis signed by Bruno Fonseca, the bank's sector analyst for inputs, released today (November 3).

According to the study, this cyclical shift, already predicted in a projection released in April, is now confirmed by the continued decline in the fertilizer accessibility index, an indicator that measures the relationship between price and the producer's purchasing power. Although some regions still show resilience, the overall trend points to a weakening of demand in 2025 and a more pronounced slowdown in 2026.

The 12-month moving average of the index has already moved into negative territory, which, according to Rabobank, confirms the start of a new downturn, similar to the contraction recorded in previous periods. 

The regional market dynamics remain volatile. In the United States, geopolitical tensions and trade tariffs are expected to weigh on the cost of agricultural inputs. In Europe, the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is likely to further increase prices. In Brazil, producers face tight margins and credit restrictions, although fertilizer deliveries could reach record levels in 2025.

China remains focused on domestic supply, reducing exports, while India continues to influence the global urea trade through its auctions, which set international prices.

Urea, phosphates and potassium

Urea consumption is expected to decline in 2026, following recent sharp price increases. In Brazil, this trend is already being felt with the partial substitution by the use of ammonium sulfate.

Phosphate fertilizers are also facing high prices, which should lead to a 4% drop in global consumption in 2025, with further reductions projected for the following year. The decline in Chinese exports has been partially offset by increases in shipments from Morocco and Saudi Arabia, but the total trade volume remains subdued.

Regarding potassium, consumption recovered in 2024, driven by falling prices. However, the trend is for a further slowdown in 2025, with prices rising again. Brazil is expected to increase imports and may offset some of the reduced demand in other regions, but if high prices persist, global consumption could fall again in 2026.