The global coffee market is expected to have a surplus in 2026.

Global coffee supply is expected to exceed demand in 2026, with an estimated surplus of 10 million bags, according to an analysis by StoneX, a global financial services company. The projection points to production of 182,5 million bags, compared to consumption of 172,5 million, allowing global stocks to replenish to levels above 48 million bags, after four consecutive years of decline until 2024 and a slight recovery in 2025.

Despite the more comfortable scenario, the market should not yet perceive itself as fully supplied. The recovery is occurring from a historically tight base and continues to be marked by regional imbalances, as well as uncertainties related to climate, geopolitical tensions, trade policies, and the evolution of regulations such as the EUDR (European Union Deforestation-Free Products Regulation), which requires traceability and proof that imported products are not associated with deforestation. 

“The market enters 2026 with a more comfortable outlook from a supply perspective, but still far from a stable scenario. Inventory replenishment is uneven because increased production is concentrated in certain origins, such as Brazil, while relevant consumer regions are still operating at historically low levels,” says Leonardo Rossetti, Market Intelligence specialist at StoneX. 

Global production growth, estimated at 9,6% year-on-year – compared to 166,5 million bags in 2025, based on revised figures – is mainly driven by Brazil. The country is expected to register a record harvest of 75,3 million bags in 2026/27, a 20,8% increase year-on-year, boosted by the recovery from the previous season's weather damage and the structural improvement in production, especially of robusta coffee.

Other regions also contribute to the increased supply, albeit in a heterogeneous way. In Asia, Vietnam's production is expected to grow by almost 10%, following a recovery from adverse weather conditions. In Africa, countries such as Uganda and Ivory Coast are expected to increase the continent's production by 3,6% year-on-year. 

On the other hand, not all origins are keeping pace with this rhythm. In Central America, production is expected to decline slightly, with a drop of less than 1% overall. Colombia, meanwhile, is expected to produce around 12,6 million bags, down from 13,5 million recorded in the previous cycle, reinforcing the heterogeneity of the global supply. 

Regarding inventories, a consistent recovery is expected. The global volume should rise from approximately 38 million to over 48 million bags in 2026. In Brazil, the main driver of this movement, inventories could grow by approximately 5 million bags year-on-year. 

However, the recovery is not happening evenly. In Europe, a traditional market buffer, stocks are once again approaching the lower limit of the historical range in 2025, after a drop of more than 2 million bags between 2024 and 2025, with a gradual recovery expected in 2026. In the United States, green coffee stocks fell from more than 6 million bags in 2022 to less than 1 million in 2025, with a slight recovery expected this year. Japan, on the other hand, is experiencing a more moderate, but persistent, decline over the last few years. 

“The replenishment of stocks is a significant movement, but it comes after a prolonged series of declines and with uneven distribution between producing and consuming regions. This keeps the market sensitive, since not all regions are able to replenish stocks at the same pace,” Rossetti points out. 

On the demand side, global coffee consumption, which fell by about 2,5% in 2025, is expected to recover at a similar rate in 2026, with an increase also estimated at 2,5%. This growth is supported by slowing inflation and a gradual improvement in economic conditions, especially in markets such as the United States, Brazil, and Japan. 

Nevertheless, prices remain high and continue to impact consumption. In Brazil, coffee inflation exceeded 80% in mid-2025 and ended the year still about 35% above the previous period. In the United States, inflation remained above 30% throughout 2025, with clearer signs of relief only at the beginning of 2026. In the eurozone, prices ended 2025 with an increase of around 18%, maintaining a downward trend.

In this context, 2026 should solidify as a transition year for the global coffee market, with improved fundamentals, but still subject to fluctuations. 

“Although the surplus reduces the risk of extreme events, the market remains vulnerable. Small supply or demand shocks can still have a significant impact on prices, which requires constant monitoring of the fundamentals,” Rossetti concludes.