The global cocoa market begins 2026 searching for equilibrium.

After a period marked by high volatility and successive supply shocks, the global cocoa market begins 2026 still under an environment of uncertainty, although in a configuration distinct from that observed in the last two years. According to Lucca Bezzon, Market Intelligence analyst at StoneX, the abrupt price surge at the end of 2025, when futures contracts reached nearly US$12,5 per ton in New York, gave way to a consistent correction, bringing prices down to around US$5 per ton. Even so, prices remain historically high, supported by still very low global stocks and the recent memory of two failed harvests in West Africa.

In Ivory Coast and Ghana, early signs from the 2025/26 harvest indicate an improved pace of almond deliveries, supported by more favorable weather conditions throughout late 2025. These factors have reduced some of the short-term concerns in the sector.

“Despite this, some vulnerabilities persist. Soil moisture remains low in key regions, and phytosanitary challenges keep alive the risk of further yield losses as the cycle progresses. The recent benchmark for the 2024/25 crop, which started strong and slowed sharply, reinforces the cautious tone,” said Bezzon.

Meanwhile, secondary producers are gaining relevance on the international stage. Ecuador is consolidating itself as a major highlight, registering exports above historical averages and productivity gains related to investments in management, as explained by the market analyst.

“Ecuadorian growth, accompanied by more discreet movements in Indonesia, Nigeria, and Brazil, however, does not replace the central role of West Africa, but tends to reduce the market's sensitivity to localized shocks, especially if the African recovery proves to be only partial throughout 2026,” he highlighted.

Changes in demand

On the demand side, the sector is undergoing a phase of structural adjustment. Bezzon explains that, after facing extreme costs for two years, the chocolate and confectionery industry reduced product sizes, reformulated recipes, and tested partial substitutes for cocoa butter, whose price in the United States reached peaks close to US$40 per ton. According to the analyst, these strategies resulted in a significant drop in the consumption of by-products and, consequently, in the demand for cocoa beans, contributing to the recent decline in international prices.

Quarterly grinding figures remain the most closely watched indicator for industry players, although interpreting the data requires caution. "The contraction observed in Europe and Asia, and more moderately in North America, reflects both margin compression and limitations in the supply of quality almonds, a scenario that still makes it difficult to separate cyclical effects from structural changes in consumption," he said.

Another important piece of the current panorama is the recent revision by the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO). After two quarters without updates, the entity reduced its projections for 2024/25, reinforcing the view that the market remains structurally tight. “StoneX, in turn, projects a surplus of 287 tons for 2025/26, resulting from more restrained demand and the partial recovery of major producers. If this scenario is confirmed, the stock-to-consumption ratio could approach historical levels throughout 2026,” stated the analyst.

Contract transactions

In the financial field, the behavior of futures contracts also signals a phase change. The strong backwardation that dominated much of 2024 and 2025 has given way to a flatter curve, indicating a perception of less immediate scarcity and a gradual normalization of fundamentals until 2027.

According to Bezzon, the increase in short positions by speculative investors shows a more bearish short-term sentiment, although it opens up room for episodes of volatility in the face of potential supply or demand surprises. In parallel, the inclusion of cocoa in the Bloomberg Commodity Index in January is likely to add buying flow and influence price performance in the coming months.