Forecast indicates a warmer May with irregular rainfall.

The climate forecast for May 2026 indicates a scenario of irregular rainfall and above-average temperatures across much of Brazil. According to the National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet), the highest rainfall volumes are expected to be concentrated in the North and Northeast regions, while areas of the Central-West, Southeast, and parts of the South are likely to register accumulations below the historical average.

No NorthRainfall is expected to be above average in states such as Pará, Amapá, and in areas of Amazonas, Tocantins, Acre, and Roraima. However, in the central-west of Amazonas and the north of Roraima, rainfall may be below normal for this time of year.

No NortheastThe forecast indicates above-average rainfall across virtually the entire region, particularly along the coast of Alagoas and Sergipe, where the largest positive deviations are expected. In much of Bahia, rainfall amounts are expected to be close to average, with the exception of the northeast of the state, where more intense rainfall is also forecast.

For MidwestThe scenario is one of rainfall near or below average, especially in southern Mato Grosso do Sul and southwestern Mato Grosso. In other areas, rainfall amounts should remain within the normal range for the month.

No SoutheastThe trend is for below-average rainfall in parts of Minas Gerais, São Paulo, Espírito Santo, and Rio de Janeiro, while the rest of the region should register volumes close to the climatological average.

Now at SulThe weather pattern will be more erratic. Rio Grande do Sul is expected to have above-average rainfall, while Paraná and central-eastern Santa Catarina are likely to experience below-normal volumes.

Temperatures above average prevail.

In addition to irregular rainfall, the month will be marked by higher temperatures across much of the country, especially in the Central-West, North, and Northeast regions.

No NorthTemperatures are expected to be above average, except in areas of Amazonas, Acre, Rondônia, and parts of Roraima and Pará, where values ​​tend to remain close to normal.

No NortheastThermometers may register temperatures up to 1°C above average in states such as Rio Grande do Norte, Pernambuco, Alagoas, and Sergipe, as well as the Matopiba region.

No MidwestTemperatures are also expected to exceed the historical average, with deviations of up to 1°C in areas of Goiás, Mato Grosso, and Mato Grosso do Sul.

No SoutheastHeat prevails in Minas Gerais, while parts of São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, and Espírito Santo may register temperatures slightly below average.

Now at SulHowever, the scenario is more heterogeneous: the central-west of Paraná should have above-average temperatures, while the south of Rio Grande do Sul may register below-normal values. In other areas, thermometers tend to remain close to the average.

Impacts in the field vary between regions.

In the field, the effects of climate vary depending on the region. North and partly of NortheastGreater water availability tends to favor crop development and pasture maintenance. On the other hand, excess moisture can increase the risk of fungal diseases and hinder management operations.

No Midwest e SoutheastThe combination of below-average rainfall and high temperatures can reduce soil moisture, potentially negatively impacting second-crop cultures such as corn and cotton, as well as affecting pastures.

No SulIn Paraná and Santa Catarina, reduced rainfall could hinder the planting of winter crops. In Rio Grande do Sul, however, the forecast of higher precipitation tends to favor sowing, although excess moisture could make field operations difficult and increase phytosanitary risks.