The corn market begins the 2025/26 cycle under downward pressure.

The corn market begins the 2025/26 cycle under strong downward pressure, resulting from an environment of ample supply both in Brazil and internationally. The combination of high stocks, a good weather outlook for crop development, and consistent demand are the main factors keeping prices stable, but with a correction bias in the short term.

According to Yedda Monteiro, intelligence and strategy analyst at Biond Agro, the current balance between corn production and availability in the country clearly points to a scenario of abundance. “The projected production for 2025/26 remains satisfactory and stocks continue to be comfortable, reflecting a sequence of above-average harvests. This translates into technical price resistance and reinforces the sideways behavior observed in the market in recent weeks,” she states.

Domestic and international markets reinforce a pressured scenario.

Brazil's large supply coincides with a similar scenario in the international arena. The United States is harvesting a robust crop, while China projects a domestic harvest exceeding 300 million tons, reducing its appetite in the global market. As a consequence, the international environment also limits significant upward movements.

Even so, some internal factors are preventing deeper falls. "In times of devaluation of the real, the exchange rate has served as a relief valve, restoring support to domestic prices and preventing more aggressive declines," explains Yedda. At the same time, industry purchases remain sporadic, with segments such as animal protein and ethanol operating with comfortable inventories and without pressure for immediate acquisition, which helps keep the market stable.

Domestic consumption relies on ethanol and animal feed demand.

The expansion of the corn ethanol sector remains one of the pillars of Brazilian consumption. With increased installed capacity and favorable margins, the sector continues to absorb a significant volume of grains throughout the year.

"Ethanol production continues to grow consistently, keeping pace with the increased capacity of mills and the higher demand for anhydrous ethanol. This sustains demand even in a scenario of ample supply," Yedda points out.

Consumption of animal feed also remains strong. Today, approximately 51 million tons are destined for the sector, considering poultry, swine, feedlots, and other supply chains. Although it shows more stable growth, this regular volume helps to contain a greater deterioration in prices.

In the logistics field, Brazil also recorded good export performance in early November, although it faces intense competition from the United States and a less devalued real, which reduces some of its international competitiveness.

What could reverse the trend?

Although the prevailing scenario is one of stability with a downward bias, there are triggers capable of altering the market's rhythm, especially in the short term. The most sensitive is the weather.

“The real tipping point will be the planting window for the second crop. Any irregular rainfall between January and February, especially in the Midwest and Matopiba regions, could affect the productive potential and generate an immediate upward reaction in prices,” assesses the analyst.

Exchange rate factors can also trigger positive movements if there is a more intense devaluation of the real. However, Yedda points out that this is not the current market scenario.

There is also anticipation surrounding the upcoming USDA (U.S. Department of Agriculture) reports, which have resumed publication after weeks of hiatus. If there is a moderate downward revision in American productivity or a signal of stronger exports, Chicago may respond with occasional price increases, easing global pressure.

Producer divides strategies between liquidity and retention.

Producer behavior varies according to region and financial situation. In areas with greater logistical pressure or cash flow needs, there is faster liquidation, taking advantage of occasional exchange rate spikes. In regions with greater storage capacity, especially in the Midwest, moderate retention predominates, waiting for better price opportunities.

"Faced with a structurally oversupplied market, producers have been taking advantage of specific moments, whether for the sale of physical products or hedging opportunities, especially when we observe the maintenance of B3 prices for corn and days of greater exchange rate volatility," concludes Yedda Monteiro.