In Mato Grosso do Sul, winter officially began on June 20th, at 16:51 pm. Even though the cold days are less intense due to climate change, there is a forecast of frost for some regions of the State next month, between the 10th and 15th of July. Given this prognosis, the Aprosoja/MS technical team carried out an analysis to assess the potential impact of this climate phenomenon on agriculture in the region.
According to the technical coordinator of Aprosoja/MS, Gabriel Balta, the analysis considers the planting progression and the phenology of the crops, taking into account a 128-day cycle. During this period, it was identified that approximately 28% of the corn cultivation area for the second harvest 2023/2024, in the southern region of the state, will be in the phenological stages between R1 (flowering and pollination) and R4 (farinaceous grain).
“These stages are critical and highly susceptible to damage caused by frost, which can result in significant reductions in production potential”, explains Gabriel.
In the central region of the State, analysis by Aprosoja/MS estimates that 13% of crops will be in phenological stages between R1 and R4 during the predicted frost period, which also puts these areas at risk.
“The northern region seems to be safer, with no apparent risk of frost. Furthermore, only 6% of crops in this region will be in the R4 stage during the frost period”, concludes Balta.
Until June 14, 2024, the harvested area monitored by the SIGA-MS Project, carried out by Aprosoja/MS, reached 4,2%. The harvest is more advanced in the southern region, with an average of 5,1%. In the central region, the average is 3,1%, while in the north it is just 0,5%. Of the 76 total producing municipalities, only 42 municipalities have started harvesting. To date, the harvested area, as estimated by the SIGA-MS Project, is approximately 92 thousand hectares. The peak harvest, according to phenology, will be between June 21st and July 19th, a period in which we will have 60% of the harvest at full maturity.
The percentage of area harvested in the 2nd harvest of 2023/2024 is 4,2 percentage points higher than in the 2nd harvest of 2022/2023, for the date of June 14th. Around 15% of the area is outside the agricultural climate risk zone and 40% is outside the best sowing window.
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