El Niño Panel: Strong event increases risks for the second half of the year's harvest

El Niño is expected to remain active until early 2027 and could reach very strong intensity between spring and summer 2026. The forecast indicates above-average rainfall in the Southern Region and below-average precipitation in much of central and northern Brazil. This scenario favors some harvesting operations but increases the risks of water shortages, fungal diseases, fires, and delays in planting the summer crop. This information is contained in bulletin number 2 of the El Niño Panel.

The phenomenon's configuration was confirmed in June 2026. The warming of the surface of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean reached an anomaly of 1,4 degrees Celsius in the Niño 3.4 region, 1,8 degrees Celsius in the Niño 3 region, and 3 degrees Celsius in the Niño 1+2 region. Atmospheric circulation patterns also showed a typical El Niño response.

Strong conditions

Models indicate a 100% probability of strong conditions persisting until the end of 2026. The projection from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration points to an 81% chance of a very strong event in the October, November, and December quarter.

For August, September, and October, the climate forecast indicates below-normal rainfall in areas of the North, Northeast, and Central-West regions. In the South, volumes tend to exceed the average. The signal of above-normal rainfall may extend as far south as São Paulo and Mato Grosso do Sul.

Temperatures are expected to be above average across almost the entire country. This pattern increases the likelihood of heat waves, low relative humidity, and wildfires, especially in areas with rainfall deficits.

Northern Region

In the Northern Region, drier weather tends to favor the harvesting of second-crop corn and cotton. Conversely, the combination of heat and lower rainfall may increase the demand for irrigation, exacerbate water shortages, and affect perennial crops. The risk of vegetation fires also increases.

In the Legal Amazon region, forecasts indicate below-average rainfall across much of the central-northern portion. This scenario encompasses areas of Amazonas, Pará, Amapá, Roraima, Maranhão, Rondônia, Acre, and northern Tocantins. The strengthening of El Niño could delay the onset of the rainy season in the southern part of the region. The persistence of dry spells favors the drying out of vegetation and limits the recovery of soil moisture and river levels.

North East Region

In the Northeast, dry weather may benefit the second corn and cotton harvest in the Matopiba region. However, the lack of rain tends to hinder the establishment of the summer crop. Rainfed crops may lose productive potential. Livestock farming may also face reduced water availability.

The drought situation in the Northeast already deserves attention. In June 2026, moderate drought affected 40% of the region, compared to 10% in the same month of 2023. Some areas are experiencing both short- and long-term impacts. High evaporative demand can accelerate soil water loss during the dry season.

Midwest region

In the Midwest, the predicted conditions favor the harvesting of second-crop corn, cotton, sorghum, and late-planted crops. The heat may compromise pastures and water resources. Lack of moisture may also hinder the preparation of areas intended for the next cycle.

Southeast

In the Southeast, the scenario tends to facilitate the harvesting of second-crop and winter crops. Water scarcity and high temperatures may reduce the productive potential of winter crops. Sugarcane, citrus, pastures, and perennial crops are also at risk.

Drought affected 76% of the Southeast region in June 2026. Two percent of the region was experiencing severe drought. A potential delay in the rainy season could worsen the situation during the spring and summer.

South

In the South, the greater availability of water in the soil can benefit wheat and other winter crops. The effect will depend on the phenological stage and the distribution of rainfall. The replenishment of moisture can also favor the planting of corn and soybeans.

Excessive rainfall, however, increases the pressure from fungal diseases. High humidity can limit spraying, fertilization, and other operations. Persistent rains can also delay harvesting, increase the risk of replanting, and hinder soil preparation for the summer crop.

The region still faces hydrological risks. The levels of the Uruguay River remained above historical averages at the end of July. The basins of the Caí, Taquari, Uruguay, and Sinos rivers experienced flooding. The forecast of above-average rainfall maintains the alert for further flooding during the second half of the year.

Fire hazard

The risk of fire is expected to increase in the interior of Brazil between August and October. High-alert areas are expanding over Mato Grosso and much of the North Region. Western Northeast and Minas Gerais are also showing an increase in risk. For the Legal Amazon, the greatest concerns are concentrated in Tocantins, Pará, Maranhão, Mato Grosso, and the region formed by Amazonas, Acre, and Rondônia.