Sugarcane production in São Paulo is estimated at 283,4 million tons

Sao Paulo's sugarcane production is estimated at 283,4 million tons, a volume 5,06% lower than that of the last harvest and 5,96% lower than the projection of the previous survey, according to forecasts from the National Supply Company (Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento) ( Conab) for the 2022/23 harvest, with data prepared by the Economic Department of the Federation of Agriculture and Livestock of the State of São Paulo (FAESP).

The drop in the harvest is explained by the low volumes of precipitation, a consequence of the La Niña phenomenon, as well as the reduction in the area under production. The estimate is that 3,99 million hectares will be harvested this cycle, a drop of 5,26% compared to the last harvest.

According to Conab, the reduction in the area under production is the result of competition with soybean and corn crops and the weather problems that occurred in 2021, which made it impossible for part of the areas to be allocated for cutting.

Thus, the estimates for the seedling area and the planted area increased by 59,7% and 5,2%, totaling 128,4 thousand hectares and 676,2 thousand hectares, in order.

The weather conditions in the State of São Paulo should impact the average (Total Recoverable Sugar) ATR, with an estimated drop of -6,28%, totaling 135,2 kg/ton. The total ATR is projected at 40,7 million tons (-5,48% compared to the previous result). However, despite the climate adversities, Conab's projection indicates an average productivity of 71.094 kg/tonnes, an increase of 0,2% compared to the 2021/22 cycle.

“The data shows that, despite climate issues, producers, especially those from São Paulo, continue to invest in productivity”, says the president of FAESP, Fábio de Salles Meirelles.

This harvest, the priority is for sugar production: 155,3 million tons of sugar cane for sweetener (54,8%) and 117,0 million tons for fuel (41,3%). The greater allocation to sugar is justified by the volume of sweetener sold in advance and, also, by the attractive prices of this product.

Despite this, the estimate for sugar production in this cycle is 1,86% lower than that of the last harvest: 21,0 million tons. For ethanol production, a drop of 9,53% is expected: 10,8 billion liters in total, of which 5,09 billion liters of anhydrous (-4,71%) and 5,71 billion liters of hydrated (-13,43%).

Brazil

In relation to the Brazilian sugarcane harvest, Conab's second survey for the 2022/23 harvest estimates a production of 572,9 million tons, a volume 1,02% lower than the last harvest and 3,9% lower than the projection from the previous survey. The drop in the estimate is due to the reduction in the harvested area and, also, the low rainfall and temperatures recorded in the Center-South region of the country, which negatively impacted crop yields in some states in this region.

The projection is for 8,13 million hectares to be harvested in this cycle, representing a drop of 2,6% compared to the last harvest.

According to Conab, the main reason for the loss of sugarcane harvested area was competition with soybean and corn crops, but the drop is also the result of reform areas that could not be harvested, given the impacts of drought. and the frosts that occurred in 2021.

Given this scenario, estimates for the seedling area and planted area grew 31,8% and 8,7%, totaling 265,7 thousand hectares and 1,31 million hectares, respectively.

In the general context, the weather conditions in the Center-South should also reflect on the average ATR, which signals a drop of -5,95%, totaling 133,2 kg/ton. The total ATR is projected at 80,0 million tons (-3,43% compared to the previous result).

On the other hand, even with adverse weather events in the Center-South region of the country, the expected productivity in the 2022/23 harvest is 70.484 kg/ha, 1,63% higher than that in the 2021/22 cycle.

Ethanol production must be prioritized over sugar: there are 277,1 million tons of sugar cane for sweetener (48,4%) and 282,5 million tons for fuel (49,3% ). Sugar production is expected to fall by 3% in this cycle, considering that it is estimated at 33,89 million tons.

For the production of ethanol from sugarcane, the expectation is for a drop of 2,2%: 25,8 billion liters in total, 10,4 billion liters of anhydrous (+1,96%) and 15,4 .4,78 billion liters of hydrated (-30,28%). The big highlight is corn ethanol, which is projected to grow by 4,52%: 3,47 billion liters this season, compared to XNUMX billion liters produced in the last harvest.