Sugarcane production approaches the historic record of 2015

The estimated sugarcane volume for the current harvest is 665,105 million tons, very close to the record of 665,6 million tons harvested in 2015/16. Compared to last season, growth is predicted at 3,5%.

The estimate is from the 3rd Survey of the 2020/21 Sugarcane Harvest, released this Tuesday (15/12), by the National Supply Company (Conab). Of the total sugarcane, 53,8% should be used to produce 29,8 billion liters of biofuel, while sugar will absorb 46,2% of the current harvest, generating 41,8 million tons of sugar. 

Sugarcane production varies depending on the climate of each region. In the Southeast, the country's main producing region, the increase in production should be around 5,2%, reaching 436,4 million tons. São Paulo and Minas Gerais are the region's highlights. The Central-West should produce 0,5% less, totaling 139,8 million tons; the South should see a reduction of 2,7%, with the harvest estimated at 34,5 million tons. 

The Northeast, favored by the climate, is expected to increase sugarcane supply by 3,6%, which would reach 50,9 million tons. The North, responsible for less than 1% of national production, should see an increase of 2,2% in area and its production falling to 3,6 million tons.

The Conab bulletin highlights the production of sugarcane derivatives and also the generation of corn ethanol. Total ethanol production, from sugarcane and corn, is expected to reach 32,8 billion liters, which will represent a decrease of 7,9% compared to the previous harvest. Ethanol from sugar cane is expected to fall by 12,3%, limiting itself to 29,8 billion liters, while corn ethanol is expected to grow by 80,3%, reaching 3 billion liters.

The generation of anhydrous ethanol from sugar cane, used in the mixture with gasoline, is expected to decrease by 5,6%, remaining at 9,5 billion liters, while anhydrous ethanol from corn is estimated at 932,9 million of liters, 130,2% more than that produced in the previous harvest.

For hydrated ethanol from sugar cane, the production estimate is 20,3 billion liters, a reduction of 15,1%, and for hydrated corn ethanol, 2,1 billion liters, an increase of 64,4% over the 2019/20 season.

Market 

Sugar exports have remained strong since the beginning of the year. From April to November, there was an increase of 79,2% compared to the same period last year. The current 23,7 million tons already shipped exceed the total of the entire past harvest by around 25% (Apr/19 to Mar/20). The expectation is that the 2016/17 record will be surpassed, when Brazil exported 28,3 million tons.

Foreign sales of ethanol increased by 49,2% compared to the same period last harvest, reaching 2,2 billion liters. Imports from April to November decreased by 65,1%, remaining at just 306 million liters. The justification is the devaluation of the real against the dollar, even in the face of a 14,3% reduction in biofuel production and domestic consumption, due to the Coronavirus pandemic.