Sugarcane crushing falls 8,5% in the North and Northeast regions.

Sugarcane crushing in the 2025-2026 harvest in the North and Northeast regions up to December 15, 2025 totaled 36,5 million tons, a decrease of 8,5% compared to the 39,9 million tons processed in the same period of the previous season. The drop, which reflects the performance in both the North and Northeast, is based on data provided by the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (Mapa) and compiled by the Association of Sugar, Ethanol and Bioenergy Producers (NovaBio).

According to NovaBio's president, Renato Cunha, the results obtained up to December 15, 2025, confirm the challenges the sector faces in the 2025-2026 harvest: "These are climatic and international difficulties, which should result in lower numbers when we conclude the harvest, but it is important to emphasize that despite this, anhydrous ethanol production remains stable, guaranteeing the effort to reduce emissions," he adds.

Falling numbers

In the North region, milling decreased by 11,9%, falling from 7,3 million to 6,4 million tons, while in the Northeast the drop was 7,7%, from 32,6 million to 30,1 million tons in the same period of the previous harvest. The lower volume of processed sugarcane directly impacted the pace of sugar production, which showed a 22,4% reduction considering the total of both regions, with 1,948 million tons produced compared to 2,511 million tons in the previous cycle.

In the ethanol sector, total production in the North and Northeast regions reached 1,52 million cubic meters, 6,9% lower than the same period last season. Once again, hydrated ethanol was the main contributor to the decline, with a 10,7% reduction accumulated up to December 15, 2025. Anhydrous ethanol, on the other hand, remained stable, with a marginal decrease of only 0,4%, but in the Northeast region it registered a 6,2% increase, reaffirming the change in the production profile of the current harvest.

Data on ATR – Total Recoverable Sugar, the main indicator of sugarcane quality, also reflects the impact of lower milling. Total ATR in final products fell 14,2% in the North and Northeast regions, with the indicator per ton of sugarcane declining 6,3% in the regional consolidated figure, mainly pressured by the performance of the Northeast, which recorded a drop of 9,1%, while the North Region showed an increase of 6,8%.

In a comparison between projections and actual figures for the 2025-2026 harvest, as of December 15, 2025, the sector had reached 61,9% of the estimated sugarcane milling across all regions. The North region, which practically finished milling for the current harvest in December, showed the most advanced execution, with 89,8% of the forecast, while the Northeast reached 58,1%. For total ethanol, the achievement rate was 60,3% regionally, with the North standing out, having already reached 97,5% of the estimated forecast for the period.

Ethanol stocks

Physical ethanol stocks in the North and Northeast regions also showed a decrease when comparing the harvests. As of December 15, 2025, the total stock amounted to 310,3 cubic meters, a 34,1% decrease compared to the 471,4 cubic meters recorded on the same date in 2024. Anhydrous ethanol showed a 32% reduction, already indicating a boost from the new 30% ethanol blend in gasoline, while hydrated ethanol saw an even sharper drop of 35,9%.